Republicans Now 100 Percent AWOL From Fiscal Cliff Talks
-By Kevin Drum
Thu Dec. 27, 2012
<http://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2012/12/republicans-now-100-awol-fiscal-cliff-talks?utm_medium=twitter&utm_source=twitterfeed>
Washington Post Pushes Mayan End of the World Story on "Fiscal Cliff"
by Dean Baker
Published on Thursday, December 27, 2012 by Center for Economic and
Policy Research
http://www.commondreams.org/view/2012/12/27-8
How an Astounding New Right-Wing Lie About the Economy Was Born
Insensitivity to human plight taken to new extremes.
By Joshua Holland
December 27, 2012
http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article33459.htm
--0--
http://www.commondreams.org/view/2012/12/27-1
Published on Thursday, December 27, 2012 by RobertReich.org
The Only Way Left to Beat GOP Fanatics: Call Their Bluff and Go Over
the Fabricated "Cliff"
by Robert Reich
President Obama is cutting his Christmas holiday short, returning to
Washington for a last attempt at avoiding the fiscal cliff. But he's
running headlong into the Republican strategy of fanaticism.
It's a long-established principle of game theory (see Thomas
Schelling's classic 1956 essay in the American Economic Review) that
a fanatic who restricts his freedom to avert a disaster puts maximum
pressure on his opponent to give ground.
In a game of highway chicken, for example, the driver that can't
swerve because he's tied his hands to the steering wheel and chained
his foot to the accelerator forces the other to swerve in order to
avoid crashing.
The trick is for the first driver to convince the second that he's
crazy enough to have committed himself to instant death if the second
doesn't act rationally.
House Speaker John Boehner's failure to persuade rank-and-file House
Republicans to raise taxes even on millionaires fits the fanatic's
strategy exactly. Boehner can now credibly claim he has no choice in
the matter - Republican fanatics in the House have tied his hands and
manacled his feet - so the only way to avoid going over the cliff is
for Obama and the Democrats to make more concessions.
The White House's hope of getting the Senate to pass legislation that
raises taxes on the wealthy in order to pressure Boehner won't work
because the legislation can't possibly get through the House. That's
the point: Boehner has demonstrated he has no choice; the fanatics
are in charge there.
Obama could decide going over the cliff isn't so bad after all - as
long as he and congressional Democrats introduce legislation early in
the 2013 that gives a tax cut to the middle class retroactively to
January 1st (extending the Bush tax cut to the first $250,000 of
income) and restores most spending - and Republicans feel compelled
to go along.
But with Boehner's hands tied and the fanatics in charge, this gambit
becomes far riskier. What if we go over the cliff and House
Republicans continue to hold out against any tax increases on the
rich while demanding major cuts in Medicare and Social Security?
The path of least resistance is for Obama and the Democrats to offer
to keep everything as is, through 2013 - extend all the Bush tax cuts
and continue all current spending (lifting the debt limit along the
way) - unless or until a "grand bargain" on the budget is agreed to
before the end of next year.
This is likely to satisfy enough Republican fanatics to gain a
majority in the House. And it would avoid the fiscal cliff, kicking
the can down the road and giving everyone more time.
Deficit hawks in both parties won't like it, but that's okay.
Unemployment is still way too high and growth too meager to justify
trimming the deficit any time soon.
The real problem with this gambit is it doesn't change the game. Even
down the road, Boehner's hands will still be tied and the fanatics
will remain in charge - which will give Republicans the stronger
position in negotiations leading to a "grand bargain." Compromise
would have to be almost entirely on the Democrats' side.
That's why I'd recommend going over the cliff and forcing the
Republicans' hand. It's a risky strategy but it would at least expose
the Republican tactic and put public pressure squarely on
rank-and-file Republicans, where it belongs.
The fanatics in the GOP have to be held accountable or they'll
continue to hold the nation hostage to their extremism. Even if it
takes until the 2014 midterms to loosen their hold, the cost is worth
it.
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons License
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