| When a president's approval numbers are high, we can pretty well assume that those expressing approval like either him, his policies, or both. What does it mean when his approval numbers drop? When a president's approval numbers drop, it seems to be assumed or implied by those reporting the drop that opposition to the president's policies have correspondingly increased. So, for example, if President Bush's approval numbers drop, it will be asserted or implied that Americans are becoming disenchanted with, say, his pursuing the war in Iraq.
What makes these assumptions unreliable, however, is that, unlike approval numbers, disapproval numbers come from both sides of any president's position. A single number is used to aggragate those people who now disagree with the president's policies AND those who favor the president's policies, but who now question the degree or effectivess to which he is pursuing them. One number is being used to represent two entirely different sets of opinions. So a rising disapproval number for President Bush would include those who always opposed, e.g., his Iraq policy together with those who previously supported his policies and have now changed their mind (the inference usually drawn), AND those who supported and still support the policy, but see the administration weakening or abandoning its pursuit. A single diapproval number of Congress represents both those who are upset by its approval of the Bush tax cuts AND those who want more tax cuts; both those who are upset about the refusal to nationalize health care AND those who fear Congress is on the verge of taking a major step in that direction. The latter category is, in my experience, rarely reported, and it is wrongly implied or asserted that everyone in the latter category is in the former. I suppose this could easily be detected by examining a poll's "internals" but these are either nonexistent--which suggests something about intentions of the the poll's designers--or are not reported. (I do not recall ever having heard a disapproval number broken down in this way, but perhaps it is and I have missed it.) To illustrate, consider these two interesting columns--Unpunished Failure & Regional Struggle--by Michael Lefeen, a strong supporter of the war in Iraq. If Ledeen were polled would his own internal "disapproval rating" of the administration have increased? Surely. Does this mean he has changed his mind about his previous support for the war? Hardly. Perhaps everyone reading this already views approval ratings in this way, but I think the informational distortion of disapproval numbers, both intentionally and unintentionally, is pretty widespread. -- Posted by Randy Barnett to The Volokh Conspiracy at 11/5/2003 02:18:05 PM Powered by Blogger Pro |
