Von: Jed Rothwell jedrothw...@gmail.com
An: vortex-l@eskimo.com
Gesendet: 4:09 Samstag, 31.März 2012
Betreff: Re: [Vo]:Should there be a prediction market for LENR?
pagnu...@htdconnect.com wrote:
And,
having odds makers following LENR might generate
Von:pagnu...@htdconnect.com pagnu...@htdconnect.com
An: Guenter Wildgruber gwildgru...@ymail.com
Gesendet: 18:59 Samstag, 31.März 2012
Betreff: Re: [Vo]:Should there be a prediction market for LENR?
Guenter,
You are too cynical
no, my dear friend, I'm trying to be a humanist realist.
Cynicism
There are several prediction markets that allow legal wagers on political,
economic, technological, ..., events.
The Wikipedia page at -
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prediction_market - lists and describes them:
Prediction markets (also known as predictive markets, information
markets, decision
From pagnucco:
...
People who buy low and sell high are rewarded for improving the market
prediction, while those who buy high and sell low are punished for
degrading the market prediction. Evidence so far suggests that prediction
markets are at least as accurate as other institutions
I do not know much about prediction markets but this seems like a bad idea
because the game is rigged. Whether a Fortune 500 company will announce a
product or not is entirely a matter of politics. There are no technical
reasons to prevent this from happening. In a sane world, every Fortune 500
You make a excellent point, Jed.
I have heard accusations that some of these markets may have been
manipulated by certain political election campaigns. It probably doesn't
require a huge investment to move the odds.
However, these markets are probably too small for a major corporation to
make
pagnu...@htdconnect.com wrote:
And,
having odds makers following LENR might generate a lot of public interest.
Sure. It sounds like fun.
I have no objection whatever to setting up this bet. I am just saying that
the issue will be decided by the money people. If they decide to invest
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