[Vo]:covid19

[mixent]

Hi,

Since the virus doesn't like oxidants, another possible remedy may be the very 
old remedy of sulphur tablets.

Regards,


Robin van Spaandonk

local asymmetry = temporary success

Re: [Vo]:COVID19 Scenario Explorer

[Jed Rothwell]

Sean True  wrote:

You can set the duration of the simulation in a calendar control:
>

Ah, thanks. Those numbers are grayed out so I thought they were disabled.
You have to click on the lower number to extend into the future.

(I am using my awkward laptop, which is hard to navigate with.)

The actual data is on the left, in the dots. That is helpful. How often is
that updated?


Again let me say: this is a great job.

Re: [Vo]:COVID19 Scenario Explorer

[Sean True]

You can set the duration of the simulation in a calendar control:
[image: image.png]
and adjust the transmission rate to reflect improvements in counter
measures:
[image: image.png]

It's very hard to set parameters that will not include the US running out
of ICU beds and the attendant
catastrophic death rate.

On Sun, Mar 22, 2020 at 4:41 PM Jed Rothwell  wrote:

> Charles  wrote:
>
>> 'We are a research group at the Biozentrum, University of Basel,
>> Switzerland . We are broadly
>> interested in evolution, ecology, and population genetics with a focus on
>> rapidly evolving pathogens such as HIV, influenza virus, or pathogenic
>> bacteria.'
>>
>> https://neherlab.org/covid19/
>>
> This is a excellent modeling program. It takes into account many different
> parameters. I poked around with it for a while. I don't yet understand how
> to use it properly, but let me make a few basic observations:
>
> Set this for "United States." On the top left, set the "epidemiology"
> parameter to "Slow/North" and the projection for March 21 (yesterday) comes
> out 19,624 cases, 260 deaths. The actual total for yesterday was 24,207,
> 302 deaths. So, the model is remarkably close to yesterday with that
> setting.
>
>
> This model assumes the control parameters will not change. That's
> unrealistic! We are not a flock of birds with no control over the epidemic.
> Of course the parameters will change as people are frightened and they
> begin to follow orders and stay in their houses. How much they will change
> I myself cannot predict. I hope epidemiologists can predict this, and
> advise government officials.
>
>
> Obviously, the parameters could have changed completely, enough to
> extinguish the epidemic weeks ago in the U.S., if only our political
> leaders had learned from S. Korea and Japan. And learned what not to do
> from Italy. Alas, they did not, and now whatever happens, we will surely
> pay a high price. How high? This model predicts 223,000 deaths by Sept. 1.
> The epidemic continues after that, but . . . um . . .  I cannot figure out
> how to extend this graph.
>
>
>

Re: [Vo]:COVID19 Scenario Explorer

[Jed Rothwell]

Charles  wrote:

> 'We are a research group at the Biozentrum, University of Basel,
> Switzerland . We are broadly
> interested in evolution, ecology, and population genetics with a focus on
> rapidly evolving pathogens such as HIV, influenza virus, or pathogenic
> bacteria.'
>
> https://neherlab.org/covid19/
>
This is a excellent modeling program. It takes into account many different
parameters. I poked around with it for a while. I don't yet understand how
to use it properly, but let me make a few basic observations:

Set this for "United States." On the top left, set the "epidemiology"
parameter to "Slow/North" and the projection for March 21 (yesterday) comes
out 19,624 cases, 260 deaths. The actual total for yesterday was 24,207,
302 deaths. So, the model is remarkably close to yesterday with that
setting.


This model assumes the control parameters will not change. That's
unrealistic! We are not a flock of birds with no control over the epidemic.
Of course the parameters will change as people are frightened and they
begin to follow orders and stay in their houses. How much they will change
I myself cannot predict. I hope epidemiologists can predict this, and
advise government officials.


Obviously, the parameters could have changed completely, enough to
extinguish the epidemic weeks ago in the U.S., if only our political
leaders had learned from S. Korea and Japan. And learned what not to do
from Italy. Alas, they did not, and now whatever happens, we will surely
pay a high price. How high? This model predicts 223,000 deaths by Sept. 1.
The epidemic continues after that, but . . . um . . .  I cannot figure out
how to extend this graph.

[Vo]:COVID19 Scenario Explorer

[Charles]

'We are a research group at theBiozentrum, University of Basel, 
Switzerland . We are broadly 
interested in evolution, ecology, and population genetics with a focus 
on rapidly evolving pathogens such as HIV, influenza virus, or 
pathogenic bacteria.'


https://neherlab.org/covid19/