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 <A HREF="aol://4344:3167.missile.21049994.679332128"> AOL News: Pentagon 
Sets Missile Test Odds</A> Pentagon Sets Missile Test Odds                    
                                         

By Jim Wolf
Reuters

WASHINGTON (July 14) - The general heading the U.S. drive to build a 
controversial missile defense system rated at 50-50 the odds of intercepting 
a long-range missile in the first such test in a year.

In the Saturday night test over the Pacific, ''we have ... somewhere around a 
50-50 chance'' of destroying the target to be launched from Vandenberg Air 
Force Base in California, said Lt. Gen. Ronald Kadish, head of the Pentagon's 
Ballistic Missile Defense Organization.

The interceptor will be fired from a U.S. range in the Kwajalein Atoll of the 
Republic of the Marshall Islands. It will be cued to launch about 10 minutes 
after the target,  equipped with a dummy warhead and a decoy to gauge 
discrimination capabilities.

If everything goes according to plan, the interceptor will home in on and 
destroy the Minuteman 2 booster eight minutes and eight seconds later outside 
the earth's atmosphere.

Only one of three previous $100 million flight tests have ended with hits. 
The military often compares the technical challenge to hitting one speeding 
bullet with another.

With Saturday's flight, the Pentagon will kick off a string of $100 million 
tests at a rate of about one every other month aimed at fielding an 
operational system as early as 2004, Kadish told a Pentagon news briefing.

The Bush administration's goal is to build a multilayered system of 
ground-based, sea-launched, airborne and possibly space-based weapons against 
what it calls the growing threat of ballistic missiles in the hands of 
unpredictable foes including North Korea, Iraq and Iran.

Asked how many missiles such a system might be effective against, Kadish 
replied Friday: ''I cannot tell you and I will not.'' The issue is sensitive 
because Russia and China fear the eventual neutralization of their 
intercontinental missile arsenals.

President Bush's accelerated testing schedule calls for as many as 10 flight 
tests through the end of next year. It also aims for seven interceptors to be 
fired from ships against short-range targets.

LAST TEST WAS A FLOP

The last flight test flopped on July 7 of last year, when the interceptor's 
''kill vehicle'' failed to separate from its booster. Then-President Bill 
Clinton, lacking confidence in the technology, postponed a decision on 
whether to go ahead with plans for a limited, ground-based anti-missile 
shield.

The Bush administration, on the other hand, wants to move to a multilayered 
defense as soon as possible. The schedule will collide with the 1972 
Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty in a matter of months, Deputy Defense Secretary 
Paul Wolfowitz told Congress on Thursday.

The administration has played down the importance of whether Saturday's test 
winds up with a hit.

''This is one test in a series of tests and if it succeeds, we will gain 
confidence. And if it fails, we will learn a lot,'' Kadish said.

The test will take place some time between 10 p.m. EDT and 2 a.m. EDT Sunday, 
a time chosen to minimize the inconvenience and danger to mariners and air 
traffic. The precise moment of the test is dictated by weather and readiness 
at the test sites, Pentagon officials said.

When it announced the test plan last week, the Pentagon mistakenly said the 
launch window would be from 9 p.m. EDT to 1 a.m. EDT Eastern time. The 
one-hour difference was a mistake caused by failing to take into account a 
time zone difference, said Air Force Lt. Col. Rick Lehner, a spokesman for 
the missile defense program.

Boeing Co. is the lead system integrator for U.S. missile defense. TRW Inc. 
builds the battle command, control and communications system. Raytheon Corp. 
builds the ''exoatmospheric kill vehicle'' and Lockheed Martin Corp. is prime 
contractor on the current booster system.

Under Clinton, the land-based leg alone of interceptors, advanced radar posts 
and battle management stations was projected to cost perhaps $60 billion.  

Reut07:00 07-14-01

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