http://www.renewableenergyworld.com/articles/2016/03/new-us-generating-capacity-in-january-is-from-wind-solar.html
New US Generating Capacity in January is from Wind, Solar
Defying earlier U.S. EIA projections, renewable resources provide 13.5
percent of U.S. electricity in 2015; may beat EIA’s forecast by 15+ years.
March 7, 2016
By Kenneth Bossong
Two new federal government reports underscore not only the continued
rapid growth of renewable energy sources (i.e., biomass, geothermal,
hydropower, solar, wind) in the electric power sector but also the
ongoing failure of government forecasts to accurately anticipate and
predict that growth.
In the first 2016 issue of its monthly "Energy Infrastructure Update"
report, the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) notes that five
new "units" of wind (468 megawatts (MW)) and six new units of solar (145
MW) accounted for 100 percent of new electrical generation brought into
service in January. No new capacity for nuclear, coal, gas, or oil was
reported. Renewables now account for 17.93 percent of total installed
operating generating capacity in the U.S.: hydropower (8.56 percent),
wind (6.37 percent), biomass (1.43 percent), solar (1.24 percent), and
geothermal (0.33 percent). In fact, installed capacity for non-hydro
renewables (i.e., biomass, geothermal, solar, wind) alone (9.37 percent)
now exceeds that for either nuclear (9.15 percent) or oil (3.84 percent). **
The new renewable energy capacity added in January is continuing a
trend. Just a month earlier, FERC's December 2015 "Energy Infrastructure
Update" revealed that renewables had accounted for 64 percent of all new
electrical generating capacity installed last year.
Separately, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) has issued
its latest "Electric Power Monthly" (covering all twelve months of 2015)
indicating that electricity generated by renewable energy sources grew
by over 2 percent compared to 2014 and accounted for almost 13.5 percent
of "utility-scale" electrical output in the U.S. last year.
Moreover, EIA's end-of-the-year data reveals significantly higher growth
in the renewable energy sector than the agency had forecast less than
three months ago for calendar year 2015 in its "Short-Term Energy
Outlook." At that time, EIA said it expected "total renewables used in
the electric power sector to decrease by 1.8 percent in 2015. Hydropower
generation is forecast to decrease by 8.2 percent, and non-hydropower
renewable power generation is forecast to increase by 4.2 percent."
In reality, compared to calendar year 2014, non-hydro renewables
increased by 6.9 percent, hydro output declined by just 3.2 percent, and
the total of hydropower plus non-hydro renewables grew by 2.03 percent.
For calendar year 2015, grid-scale renewables accounted for 13.44
percent of net U.S. electrical generation — up from 13.16 percent in
2014. Of that, non-hydro renewables accounted for 7.3 percent while
conventional hydropower was 6.14 percent. Generation by all non-hydro
renewable sources grew in 2015. Biomass was up by 0.3 percent, wind by
5.1 percent, geothermal by 5.6 percent, and solar by 49.6 percent.
Renewable energy growth is significantly outpacing earlier EIA
projections. Less than four years ago, in its "Annual Energy Outlook
2012," EIA forecast that non-hydro renewables would grow at an annual
rate of 3.9 percent and provide about 250,000 thousand megawatt-hours in
2015 while non-hydro renewable electrical generating capacity would
reach approximately 85 gigawatts (GW). It also forecast that non-hydro
renewables would not surpass hydropower until 2020.
In fact, EIA now reports actual generation from non-hydro renewables in
2015 to have hit 298,358 thousand megawatt-hours from utility-scale
facilities alone; in addition, at least 12,141 thousand megawatt-hours
was provided by distributed solar PV and an unknown amount from other
distributed, small-scale renewables that are not grid-connected (e.g.,
small wind). Further, electrical generation from non-hydro renewables
surpassed that from hydropower more than a year ago.
And, according to FERC, the total installed generating capacity of wind,
biomass, solar, and geothermal units had reached 109.6 GW by January
2016 — and this reflects just the combined capacity of larger renewable
energy facilities. FERC's data only includes plants with nameplate
capacity of 1 MW or greater and therefore does not reflect the
additional capacity provided by rooftop solar or other smaller,
distributed renewable energy systems.
** Note that generating capacity is not the same as actual generation.
Electrical production per MW of available capacity (i.e., capacity
factor) for renewables is often lower than that for fossil fuels and
nuclear power. As noted, the total installed operating generating
capacity provided by renewables in 2015 was about 18% of the nation's
total whereas actual electrical generation from renewables last year was
roughly 13.5%; however, both of these figures understate renewables'
actual contribution because neither EIA nor FERC fully accounts for all
electricity generated by distributed renewable energy sources (e.g.,
uncounted U.S. rooftop solar is equal to about 45% of utility-scale
solar capacity and generation).
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