I think Brian is correct in his assessment. I'd almost be willing to take bets that he does not PR in the mile this summer. I say this not as an insult or intended disrespect but simply because the chances of everything being just right again are small. The benefits of a different training system may not pay off right away, the right race might not be there, injuries can come up, the college season might take a big toll and other factors are all there. I don't think that we should 1) assume Webb will make a jump to sub-3:50/sub 3:33 or 2) be disapointed if he doesn't. The guy has a lot of time ahead of him. If he does amaze us again then great, but I don't think we should hold him up to OG/WC finalist standards yet.
Paul On Tue, 30 Oct 2001, Mcewen, Brian T wrote: > <<< Now, some people think a time closer to 3:48 or even > 3:47 is not beyond reason. [snip] Could Webb start to approach these times > as soon as next summer >>> > > AS much as I think Alan Webb is great and doing everything right ... I would > give all takers 10:1 odds on him NOT RUNNING 3:47.XX for 1 mile this summer. > > > Moving from the 3:36-38 level he was at in '01 all the way to 3:31 is a lot > of improvement, even between 18 and 19 when you are likely to mature a lot. > Also, this is a kid who is already very physically mature. > > Could he go 3:33/3:50y? Sure, that isn't even going out on a limb, just > logical progression for him if he was very lucky. > > But remember: How many times is a college freshman living in Michigan going > to get in a race fast enough to hit those times? Unless he hits a few > circuit races after NCAA's ... he will likely only have 2-4 chances. He > isn't going to be racing 20-25 fast indoor and outdoor races like an open > runner could. > > Improving from 3:53y to 3:47y is a different universe than going from 3:54 > to 3:48 in the 1500m, no matter what your age is. > > /Brian McEwen > > > > > > > -----Original Message----- > From: Dan Kaplan [m > Sent: Tuesday, October 30, 2001 10:03 AM > To: track list > Subject: Re: t-and-f: NYTimes.com Article: Alan Webb Has Learned to Go > the Distance > > > I tried sending this a few days ago, but it doesn't seem to have made it > through to the list. So, here it goes again, as best as I can piece it > together from memory. > > --- Martin Dixon wrote: > > > http://www.nytimes.com/2001/10/27/sports/27WEBB.html?ex=1005221221&ei=1&en=f > ec901d09013dffe > > An item from the article that caught my interest: > > <<Webb's 3:53 mile last spring has had track fans drooling over a possible > sub-3:50 in 2002. Now, some people think a time closer to 3:48 or even > 3:47 is not beyond reason. [snip] Could Webb start to approach these times > as soon as next summer?>> > > Now, here's a post I made to the list shortly after Webb's record setting > mile: > > <<Here's something scary; from Runner's World: > > http://www.runnersworld.com/dailynew/archives/2001/May/010529_webb.html > > Webb's mile progression: 4:23 (1600 meters), frosh year, 1998; 4:06.94, > soph year, 1999; 4:03.33, junior year, 2000; 3:53.43, senior year, 2001 > > That's nearly identical to a teammate of mine's high school progression, > just without the extra 109 meters... 4:28, 4:08, 4:00, 3:54. Taking that > comparison one step further, he ran 3:48 his freshman year at college. > Could it be...?>> > > Anyone else notice a similarity developing...? > > Dan > > ===== > http://SpaceFiller.com - MyCalendar, D-Man, ReSearch, etc. > http://Run-Down.com - 10,000 Running Links, Free Contests... > ------------------------------------------------------------ > @ o Dan Kaplan - [EMAIL PROTECTED] > <|\/ <^- ( [EMAIL PROTECTED] or [EMAIL PROTECTED] ) > _/ \ \/\ [EMAIL PROTECTED] (lifetime forwarding address) > / / (503)370-9969 phone/fax > > __________________________________________________ > Do You Yahoo!? > Make a great connection at Yahoo! Personals. > http://personals.yahoo.com > ******************************* Paul Talbot Department of Geography/ Institute of Behavioral Science University of Colorado, Boulder Boulder CO 80309-0260 (303) 492-3248 [EMAIL PROTECTED]
