http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/athletics/4445563.stm
By Steve Cram BBC Sport Paula Radcliffe is favourite to capture the women's crown at the 2005 Flora London Marathon - but it is not going to be easy. I'm glad Paula rediscovered her competitive edge when she was forced to battle it out with Susan Chepkemei to win the New York Marathon last November. Paula needs to be gutsy because none of her marathons from now on will be cake walks. When she won the London title in 2003 there were two different races - her and the rest of the elite women - but it won't be the same this time around. Having said that she is well capable of winning London for a third time. She's in pretty good shape and seems quite relaxed. Paula has stayed away training in Albuquerque, New Mexico for a longer period than she would have in the past which has helped her focus on her preparations. She has had no problems and has done all the training she wants to do. But does that mean Paula is going to run phenomenally fast in London? Well, I'd be very, very surprised. Paula's world record time of two hours 15 minutes and 25 seconds is not the sort of target we should expect of her. She will have help from some female pacemakers but I don't expect her to do anything silly, she will be patient. Don't expect the race to be over at the halfway stage either - there will be plenty of athletes who will be within striking distance if Paula starts to falter. Defending champion Margaret Okayo is a very, very good athlete and is well capable of being a threat. The Kenyan also dropped out of the Athens Olympics where she was second favourite behind Paula to take the title, so she will also want to deliver. China's Sun Yingjie runs with an unusual style with her arms straight down by her sides and so she is one to watch out for. Yingjie is a bit of a reluctant marathon runner but she could produce a quick time. I don't think she would have come to London if she wasn't expecting to do well. The big question mark in the women's race is about Australian Benita Johnson. People keep ringing me up and telling me she will be a threat but I'm not convinced. She is a tough athlete but at this point in her career the marathon is a little bit of a stretch for her. As for the men's race, well I couldn't pick a winner. It is an excellent field and it will be a really intriguing race. If I were a betting man I would be tempted to go for world record holder Paul Tergat - although it is a big test for him. In the same way we look at what happened to Paula in Athens, Tergat's display in the men's marathon (he finished 10th) was a big, big shock in Kenya. Against him Olympic champion Stefano Baldini is capable of running a fast time on a new course. The Italian will run a different style of race to Tergat. He is always more circumspect and you won't see him at the front. Baldini and Tergat are both likely to hang around and grind out a tactical race, picking off the runners one by one. Defending champion Evans Rutto is also in the mix as he has a phenomenal record in marathons, winning all three he has entered. But I still think Tergat and Baldini will battle it out for the men's title. And one more thing, which the organisers might not thank me for, I'm not expecting any world records to go this year. ENDS
