YES, UGANDA IS PREGNANT WITH POSSIBILITIES OF MORE ARMED CONFLICTS. Over the past month, there has been a major debate in the Ugandan media and in political circles on whether the country is "ripe" for another armed conflict (struggle) resulting from the political developments in its recent past. This debate was fueled by a submission by former presidential candidate, Col (Rtd) Dr.Kiiza-Besigye, although it had been latently going on. I wish to contribute to this debate by making some observations based on historical and current political facts.
The historical political, economic and social events that led to the birth of the 1981-1986 NRA/NRM led armed rebellion that subsequently saw Museveni take power in January 1986 have been severally reviewed in these pages that a detailed analysis of each is an unnecessary repetition. But suffice it to remind the reader that they included among others, lack of fundamental rights and freedoms for the ordinary citizens, unemployment and poverty affecting a large portion of the population, rampant corruption, nepotism, political despotism among other vices practiced by the ruling group of the day. The post 1986 evolution and organization of the state, coupled with social, economic and political developments in the country shows that the NRM rule has been a mixture of extended colonial exploitation and postcolonial oppression with the more hardened dictatorial flavour. During the early years of NRM rule, most Ugandans felt that they had won freedom (of _expression, of press, etc) but Museveni on the other hand always maintained that it was him and his government that had granted these rights. Time has proven him dead right. With the events of the forced closure of the Monitor News Paper in early October 2002, and the recent ban on political radio talk shows commonly known as "ebimeeza", it is becoming increasingly clear that Ugandans were handed an "empty bag" (what the Baganda call "Byoya bya nswa") by the Museveni revolution. 17 years down the rocky road to an elusive democracy, Ugandans are still not free to associate in political groups, they are not free to discuss their political destiny openly, they cannot demonstrate when they feel aggrieved and the media must report in a manner that the government now terms "responsibly", especially when it comes to hot political issues and conflict in war situations. Ugandans are still imprisoned and tortured in safe houses while 45% of the population still lives below the poverty line. The reality is therefore, that they have never won back their rights or if they ever did then they no longer own them, hence the need to fight and win or regain them. It is important to note that these rights and freedoms, which are lacking in Uganda are widely tested and acknowledged cornerstones of a democratic society. So the pertinent question that arises is how does Museveni and his NRM party hope to build a democratic society based on despotic and dictatorial principles as a foundation? In a failed attempt to answer this fundamental question the ruling bloc in Uganda and Museveni in particular have often advanced the notion that the historical and political circumstances that gave rise to the definition and practice of democracy in Western countries (USA and Europe mainly) differ from those that exist in Uganda today and hence the need for "organic" democracy (democracy evolving from the realities of the local social and political situation); as opposed to "applied" (imported) democracy. In a desperate move to sanctify this notion, Museveni has redefined democracy to mean a concoction of systems and practices of what he baptized the Movement type of governance. But what he calls a homegrown type of democracy bears both genotypic and phenotypic identity of a one party dictatorship! In the name of ideological purification he has systematically demonized political liberalism and relegated political parties, banishing them to near demise while concurrently using constitutional and non-constitutional means to entrench his one party rule. His argument has always been that there is need to create a middle class in Uganda before political parties are allowed freedom. True, one cannot ignore the need to develop the Ugandan society in order to overcome the evils of the past, but again this has been misinterpreted and abused by the Museveni regime and instead a vertical stratification of the 'haves' and 'have-nots' has been created. In a society of unequal opportunities arising from bad political practices of corruption and nepotism, I find the idea of human stratification in the name of classes de-tasteful, immoral and bordering on the obscene. This is because it employs artificial selection of who belongs to which class and which class controls political and economic power; its true name is apartheid. What is acceptable however is horizontal differentiation, which respects the principles of division and balance of power. These developments have led Uganda to a bifurcation along its political road with both resulting paths leading to the same destination but passing through different "territories". The destination is that of peace and prosperity and it's where every Uganda wishes to be. A destination I hope we shall all achieve. The paths are; that of reform which seeks to prune the excesses of the present government without necessarily replacing it, and the other is that of total liberation resulting in a new government with new systems. The latter path winds through the "territory " of armed conflict. The issue therefore is: which one of the two paths shall we take? In conclusion I wish to make the following observations: That yes, Uganda is laden with possibilities of armed conflict, and this can be avoided by undertaking reforms which will ensure that the ordinary citizens gain their rights and freedoms, corruption, nepotism and related vices are eliminated, and that there are functional separate institutions of government that ensure a democratic future for the country. Unless these reforms are undertaken let it be understood by all that there will be total war, and this could be soon. Mugisha gwa Kasigi
