Transition in Ivory Coast, Senegal Coast a lesson to Uganda By Andrew M. Mwenda Feb 28, 2004
As the debate to amend the constitution to remove term limits on the presidency rages on, two countries - Senegal and Ivory Coast - present us with an important lesson about the cause of state failure in Sub Sahara Africa.
At independence from France in August 1960, power was handed over to a well-groomed and highly educated leadership. In Ivory Coast, the first president was Felix Houphouet Boigny (RIP), an intellectual, a former member of the French Chamber of Deputies (i.e. Member of Parliament in France), and later, unbelievably, a cabinet minister in the French government in Paris.
President Museveni (Left) and UPC's Iron lady Cecilia Ogwal.
In Senegal, power went to Leopold Sedar Senghor, again an intellectual and renowned poet, and also a former member of the French Chamber of Deputies.
Throughout the 1960s, but mainly in the 1970s and 80s when the economies of all countries in Sub Sahara Africa (with the exception of Botswana, and to some extent Kenya) were declining, Ivory Coast was growing, and won itself the title the "France of Africa."
Houphouet-Boigny built a truly African success story among - others beautiful cities. Its capital, Abidjan, is among the most beautiful cities in the world.
The best education and health system in Africa, a power and communications infrastructure of first world standards (Ivory Coast has some of the best highways on this continent), a booming financial centre hosting the headquarters of the African Development Bank - name it and it was in Ivory Coast.
In Senegal, however, the economy grew moderately in the 1960s and began to decline in the 1970s. In 1980, Senghor became the first president in Africa, who led his country to independence, to retire voluntarily from the presidency. Throughout the 1980s, Senegal's economic performance remained unimpressive and debts piled up.
Leopold Senghor (RIP)
On the other hand, attracted by this unique success story in Africa, people from neighbouring countries like Guinea, Burkina Faso, etc flocked into Ivory Coast as migrant workers, and by 1990, one third of its population was foreign.
Houphouet-Boigny held court like a true African monarch of old, and died in office in 1992. When he died there was a political struggle for succession. Won by Jean Beddie, the opponents were not satisfied. Soon, political struggles led to poor economic performance.
Unfortunately for Ivory Coast, its people began to clamour for the expulsion of foreigners; then a rigged election, a military coup, an attempted transition to civilian rule, an army mutiny, yet another attempted coup, and the outbreak of civil war.
Africa's great success story came tumbling down like a pack of cards, and is now yet another of Sub Sahara Africa's many basket cases. On the other hand, Senegal today has gone through yet another and third political transition, not only from one president to another, but also, in 2000, from a sitting government to an opposition political party.
Ivory Coast is now a collapsed state, its existence only safeguarded by the presence of French troops. The government in Abidjan only controls a few towns while the rebels control the countryside.
What succeeded in Senegal but failed in Ivory Coast becomes clear: the fortunes of nations are not primarily built in economic growth figures, but rather in their political institutions and actions by leaders that create political culture.
Yes, Ivory Coast was an economic success. However, it lacked the most important asset of any nation i.e. political institutions and a political culture to manage political conflict in case of economic crisis.
Senegal did not grow much, but its leaders have built an important tradition for their country; that leaders come and go, governments change hands, but Senegal remains.
And this is the lesson Uganda needs to pick from these two examples as we debate the constitutional amendment to remove term limits on the presidency.
To be fair to the pro-amendment supporters, there are innumerable examples of countries without term limits, where leaders change regularly; elections are free and fair, etc. Term limits should therefore not be equated to democracy.
Secondly, there are many examples to show that leaders may need many years in power to effect economic transformation. In other words, it is not the absence of term limits that allowed Mobutu to mismanage Zaire, now Congo, for 32 years.
In any case, genuine political transitions from one political party to another in Sub Sahara Africa - Somalia and Sierra Leone in the late 1960s being examples - show how miscalculated transitions can be a disaster.
However, President Yoweri Museveni and his supporters (if good judgment still matters) need to look at Uganda's history to understand where the presidential term limit came from. There have been seven changes of government in Uganda since independence and all of them have been through violence.
There is no greater legacy, tradition and symbol of our political evolution as a nation that Museveni will bestow upon us than a peaceful change of government. There is not any number of industries, schools, hospitals and kilometres of tarmac, etc that he will built that will be more appreciated, and also more enduring than a peaceful transition.
If history is not important, then Museveni and his supporters need to evaluate the national mood today and weigh its support of unlimited presidential terms. There is overwhelming evidence that current attempts to amend the constitution to remove term limits carry a potential to return Uganda to 1979 or 1985 or into a Somalia or Liberia.
While pro third term advocates carry an air of confidence about their possible success, it seems to me that the anti third term agitators (as the president calls them) feel confident about their potential. President Museveni is very weak politically and he can hardly win a third term through parliament or a referendum.
However, even if he gets the amendment, he would find it even more difficult to win an election in 2006 except through brutal repression - with the only outcome of the election being civil war.
In the next article, I will lay out President Museveni's numbers on the third term.
© 2004 The Monitor Publications
Mitayo Potosi
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