Posted by Tyler Cowen:
Will we all evolve into Republicans?
In states where Bush won a popular majority in 2000, the average
woman bears 2.11 children in her lifetime -- which is enough to
replace the population. In states where Gore won a majority of
votes in 2000, the average woman bears 1.89 children, which is not
enough to avoid population decline. Indeed, if the Gore states
seceded from the Bush states and formed a new nation, it would have
the same fertility rate, and the same rapidly aging population, as
France -- that bastion of "old Europe."
Who exactly is reproducing?
Over the past decade, fertility rates among all major American
ethnic groups have either remained low or fallen dramatically.
Between 1990 and 2002 fertility declined 14 percent among Mexican
Americans and 24 percent among Puerto Ricans. African Americans,
according to the National Center for Health Statistics, now have a
lower average fertility rate than whites, and they are no longer
producing enough children to replace their population. But one big
difference in fertility rates remains: Conservative, religiously
minded Americans are putting far more of their genes into the
future than their liberal, secular counterparts.
Of course not all children of conservatives are conservative
themselves. Furthermore the larger the share of the population a group
holds, the harder it is for that group to maintain control over the
beliefs of its children. In any case, here is [1]the full story.
References
1. http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A54700-2004Sep1.html
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