Posted by Eugene Volokh:
Exit polls:
[1]Slate Press Box -- subtitled "media criticisms" -- reports:
To hear [Joe] Lenski of Edison Media talk about it, the whole
election brouhaha of 2004 can be blamed on the people who leaked
the exit poll information and the outlets (Slate, drudgereport.com,
wonkette.com, dailykos.com, mydd.com, et al.) that tossed the raw
data out for consumption.
"I'm not designing polls for some blogger who doesn't even
understand how to read the data," Lenski told the Los Angles Times
yesterday. "It's like if you were graded by your readers on the
first draft of your article."
Yet it is Lenski and the networks who are at fault for not telling
viewers -- and bloggers -- the deeper meaning of exit poll data.
The business of calling an election is as much an art as it is a
science, and they've not been candid about that. . . .
That may well be right -- but wouldn't one also say that "it is those
who post exit poll results, including [2]Slate and in particular
Pressbox, who are at fault for not telling readers the deeper meaning
of exit poll data," such as for instance
1. the +/-4% announced mathematical margin of error (95% confidence
interval, half that if you want 68% confidence) for state exit
polls,
2. the likelihood that the margin is higher earlier in the day, when
the exit poll isn't complete, and
3. the possibility that the true of margin of error is higher still,
because of different response rates among different people, and
other factors?
Even if item 3 is obvious -- and I suspect that many readers don't
find it obvious -- the precise mathematical margin of error is
generally not well-known to readers. Shouldn't media outlets that
report polls have a responsibility to give their readers the relevant
information needed to figure out the poll's limitations, just as the
pollsters have a responsibility to give the media and the public the
relevant information needed to figure out the poll's limitations?
References
1. http://slate.com/id/2109310/
2. http://slate.com/id/2109053/
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