When the oil runs out, we will go nuclear. There will be some civil problems
as folks for and against the nuclear option 'interact', but the nuclear
option will be excersized.
All else remaining as it is, this would not do us a bit of good. Oil is only used for transportation. Nuclear power cannot (at present) be used to power automobiles or aircraft. In the future it may be used to produce hydrogen, which can be used for transportation. Or we could use electric cars. However, we might as well use electricity from something cheaper than nuclear power, such as wind or even coal.
In other words, when oil runs out, we may go nuclear, but if we want to spend six times less money, we will turn to wind power instead. That seems a lot more likely.
Because oil is only used for transportation, it is much less important than people realize. Replace automobile engines with something better and the need for oil practically vanishes.
The use of oil to generate electricity peaked in 1979 at 3,283 trillion Btu, and it has declined to 1,200 trillion Btu. See:
http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/aer/pdf/pages/sec8_18.pdf
See also Fig. 5.14. Heat content of petroleum consumption by product by sector:
http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/aer/pdf/pages/sec5_34.pdf
Note that the vertical scales differ. The figure on the bottom right shows the dramatic decline in petroleum consumption to generate electricity.
All four sectors are shown together here:
http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/aer/pdf/pages/sec5_28.pdf
The only substantial use of oil is in industry and transportation. Some of the "Industrial" sector petroleum is used to generate electricity, in combined-heat-and-power plants (cogenerators). Most is for things like petrochemical feedstocks, which could easily be replaced if cheap wind energy becomes available (and will surely be replaced if CF becomes available). See Table 5.13b:
http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/aer/pdf/pages/sec5_31.pdf
- Jed
