On Sat, Jun 29, 2019 at 6:51 AM Jed Rothwell <jedrothw...@gmail.com> wrote:
> Jack Cole <jcol...@gmail.com> wrote: > > We've seen errors this big before. >> > > I do not think so. Rossi apparently made errors this big, and much bigger: > 1 MW. (I think this was fraud, not error.) But I do not know recall any > professional scientist who has published a paper which was later shown to > have errors on this scale. Not in absolute power, or in the O/I ratio. > > If you disagree, which paper do you have in mind? Who made errors this big > before? > > Parkhomov, Defkalion, me356, Rossi of course (consider the connected papers conducted by academics), possibly Brillouin (evident from decreasing COP), Mizuno's (and many others) old plasma electrolysis work, BLP (even though they point to a different mechanism - they claim high SNR). There were other papers claiming replication of Rossi that could never be replicated. It's not hard to get it wrong and in a big way. The experimenter needs to be his or her own biggest critic. In particular, because he (MIzuno) has the most intimate knowledge of his apparatus. > >> Best to not get too excited until there is a replication. >> > > I agree. > > > >> Based on history, every time there has been an amazing result like >> this, it has turned out to be either a huge mistake, unreplicable, or >> fraudulent (I don't suspect fraud at all in this case). >> > > I do not think so, as I said. Give some examples. Who made a huge mistake? > What was not replicatable? The only fraudulent results in the history of > the field were Defkalion and Rossi, as far as I know. There may be others > that were fraud, but I thought they were mistakes that could not be > replicated. However, all the results I know of that could not be replicated > were very small. They were marginal. They look like mistakes. > > I have never heard of anyone claiming 40 to 250 W that turned out to be a > mistake. Very few claims in cold fusion exceeded 10 or 20 W. As far as I > know, the only reaction of ~20 W that could not be replicated is Dardik's > heat after death: > > https://www.lenr-canr.org/acrobat/DardikIprogressin.pdf > > The only major large claim, of ~100 W, was Fleischmann and Pons boil-off > experiment. As far as I know, only one group tried to replicate, Lonchampt > and Biberian. They succeeded. Lonchampt was a nuclear engineer, so he > followed instructions, so it worked. > > There was a molten salt claim of over 100 W, but no one tried to replicate. > > Not true. Mizuno has made such claims himself with plasma electrolysis, which were later replicated, and even later debunked. Piantelli has made high output claims -- never replicated. Nobody has replicated BEC's electrolysis results. You could argue that nobody has replicated his gas loading experiments either (though there is some possible support through testing). > > How many times have people failed to replicate Mizuno and/or shown his >> results to be in error in the past? >> > > Never, as far as I know. All of his claims were either replicated, or no > one tried to replicate. Mostly the latter. IH tried to replicate one claim > but they never got started, as far as I know. There were problems with the > equipment. This resembles the situation with the Google researchers in > *Nature* for their Pd-D claims. It was not a replication because they > never reached high loading. It was an attempt that failed for known > reasons. (I cannot judge their Ni claims.) > > Recall the previous results that were debated here about a Mizuno experiment and calorimetry, which Dave Roberson was able to determine the error that had been made (through very clever simulation work). Recall the previous claims of Mizuno and plasma electrolysis that had been initially replicated, but later research convincingly disproved (at least to me). What research of his do you feel is highly replicable? Here's a replication claiming up to 120W excess. https://www.lenr-canr.org/acrobat/FauvarqueJabnormalex.pdf Non-replication explaining previous results by splashing out of water by micro-explosions. https://www.lenr-canr.org/acrobat/KowalskiLsearchingfa.pdf >
