It is a bit premature to make this statistical assessment, but the numbers coming into CDC suggest that the Corona virus could have a net positive effect on the USA flu season in 2019-20... in terms of fewer net deaths, and millions less combined hospitalizations.
...whoa !!... where is CNN on this story? Well - this conclusions is tentative, so far and would statistical in the sense of less total combined fatalities, (i.e. less than would have been expected if Covid-10 had not surfaced and instigated a massive level of precaution). The efforts made to control the new virus may have the side-effect of cutting off the legs of the "normal" flu season which is far much more statistically relevant this year. All kinds of ramifications to that. Of course we do not know for sure if the new virus is seasonal and cannot tolerate warmer weather, but actual testing in China is suggesting that the new one is indeed very seasonal and will subside rapidly in April - in the same way that most but not all of viral influenza subsides in warmer weather. Here is the CDC site which has charted data that needs to be interpreted despite being fairly current,.. but by the end of March it will become more obvious. As of now - https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm We need one or two more of the extreme data downturn points similar to the last one - to be sure, but the trend is obvious - and it is a massive downturn in the "normal" influenza is striking. If it does not reverse, this is big news. The important chart is in the one which documents the week-by-week progression. This chart of course does not include the novel corona virus - only the two most expected versions from the past. The statisticians have not yet made the connections that the combined total of all three - could end up being massively lower in terms of net deaths - than is expected in a normal year from only the seasonal version. In conclusion, it is becoming clearer, but we need more data --- that what started out as a horrendous regular flu season (a month ago it was being called "horrendous") has instead turned around 180 degrees and could be, in fact, a light season, if not the lightest of the past two decades. This is because when we add in the new corona virus data and its sharp upturn - to the normal data- there is not much statistical change due to the fact that there are so few cases since it didn't get started until several months into the winter season, and it may peter out sooner than expected (that is uncertain of course). The interesting dynamic is this: why does a few degrees of extra heat in springtime kill the virus? Say, maybe there is an additional irony to "global warming"? But whatever the ultimate irony is seen tobe - maybe we need an occasional "new version" of flu or some other pandemic, ever so often, just so that we do not become too complacent. Jones
