OrionWorks - Steven V Johnson wrote:
Based on what I've read so far, I know I'd prefer the full protection and experience of a major utility company managing the "reactor" . . .
Me too!
I would think that only after a considerable amount of experience combined with a good track record has been built up, plus a theory that everyone can agree on, would consumer products even be considered.
I think so too. But here's what I predict: the calendar time it takes to generate that "considerable track record" will be more compressed than any industrial development in history, including the development of nuclear power and bombs during WWII.
Once it becomes generally known that this is a real nuclear effect that is likely to lower the cost of energy by a factor of 10 at first, and thousands more later, every industrial corporation on earth will pile onto it. Hundreds of thousands of researchers will work frantically to understand it, control it, and bring it to market.
So even though it will take billions and probably an act of Congress, I am sanguine. It will happen swiftly.
Someone who is talking to investors about Rossi asked me what I thought the projected cost per thermal kWh would be. I told him that Rossi described the consumables and 6-month maintenance, and estimates about $0.01/kWh. But my guess is that "first generation machine of that nature are far more expensive than anyone anticipates." Then I wrote:
"Frankly, I do not think that a conventional analysis such as the cost of thermal kWh in the initial implementation does this justice. We are talking about the most revolutionary technology in history. Making the decision to invest or not based on the initial performance would resemble the decisions made by DEC and Data General not to go into the personal computer business because the first PCs had lower performance per dollar than minicomputers. That was true, but not for long. In 1980, any computer company that decided not to pursue the PC market was signing its own death warrant. If Rossi is not mistaken, and this thing is real, and if even ONE company, anywhere decides to develop it, then every other major industrial company will either follow suit and invest billions in the technology, or it will go bankrupt in a few decades. GE, Toyota or Mitsubishi -- it makes no difference how big or powerful they are now. They will either develop this or they will vanish like the Pennsylvania Railroad, General Motors, DEC and all the other great corporations that went out of business in the 20th century.
Cold fusion will be the core technology to as many different products as integrated circuits are today. Can you imagine how long GE would last today if they had no expertise in integrated circuits or computers?
That's what I would tell investors . . ." - Jed
