OrionWorks - Steven Vincent Johnson <orionwo...@charter.net> wrote:
> Obama may take as few as 271 (one more than needed) and likely not more > than 303. > I predict 303, including VA. Without VA it comes to 290. I am predicting 2%, which is slightly more than the polls show at present, because of the Likely Voter (LV) problem. In U.S. elections, participation is low, so unless you estimate the number of likely voters a poll is meaningless. I have read the methods used by various pollsters to estimate this. Gallop in particular shows a wide gap between "all voters" and "likely voters." I have great respect for pollsters, especially Gallup, but I think they are underestimating three things: The likely Latino turnout. Young voters with cellphones only. The effectiveness of Obama's get-out-the-vote (GOTV) campaign. Not for nothing was he a community organizer. My sources in the Democratic Party tell me things are awesome in PA, VA and CO. They have been rehearsing for months. They have people and resources lined up, and schedules wired to 15 minute increments. A Republican insider in CO expects the Dems to pick up 2% in his state with there GOTV. Incidentally, Gallop has shut down for a week because they think the storm shut off access to so many respondents the sample would be biased. No one else did that. I assume the others are estimating the effects of NY and NJ voters unable to respond. See: http://pollingmatters.gallup.com/ QUOTE: "Here's an update on Gallup’s thinking when we suspended our national daily tracking of the presidential election campaign as of Monday, Oct. 29. Basically, we reached the conclusion that Superstorm Sandy had compromised the ability of a national survey to provide a nationally representative assessment of the nation’s voting population. An unprecedented estimated 8 million households have lost power because of the storm and many others have had their lives disrupted. Cell phone service has also been compromised in many areas." If Gallup's stats from before the storm were correct, and not outliers, and if the trend they showed is still in place, Obama will lose. I can't deny that is possible, but I doubt it. So does Nate Silver. Silver also disputes their estimate of LV. - Jed
