Jones, It's a very interesting analysis. I just to want to add 2 comments:
Rossi always claims to have very cost effective powder and catalyst. If enriched nickel is needed, stop me if I'm wrong, but there is no intrinsic reason to have a very high purity of Ni62. The last percents are always the most expensive to have. That contradicts also the claims from Defkalion. Defkalion says that all the even isotope are suitable. Arnaud _____________________________________________ From: Jones Beene [mailto:jone...@pacbell.net] Sent: dimanche 12 mai 2013 21:42 To: vortex-l@eskimo.com Subject: [Vo]:Palladium vs Ni-62 If the commercialization of LENR were to resolve on the single issue of cost of the active metal host, the winner would likely be counterintuitive, based on present assumptions. Palladium these days sells for $ 708/oz or about $25 gram. Nickel-62 - "request a quote" the price is highly dependent on the quantity to be ordered. The range of quotes for 10 gram orders is from $100,000 to $200,000. The purity is 95-97%. The info above, favoring palladium, seems to be unequivocal but in fact - that conclusion is superficial. First, palladium is rare and the price is extremely sensitive to demand. It could double overnight and has done so, historically. There is no chance of it going down. Then there is deuterium, which is also costly. Second, nickel as a bulk metal is pretty cheap - and will go up but there are limits. As of May 09, 2013: $6.95 per pound is the quote for nickel. In terms of increased demand, it could go over $10/lb but probably not over $20 - since it is a high tonnage metal already. The natural content of Ni-62 is between 3-4%. If half of this can be removed from a gaseous feedstock, the remaining nickel is still worth the same as bulk nickel. That is a major advantage over other isotopes used for enrichment. The purity or conversely - the enrichment level can probably be low. That is of highest importance for lower cost. It nickel sometimes works in an un-enriched state, then the level needed for reliable operation could be relatively low in the 15-20 percent range - and easier to manufacture. There is only one gaseous form of nickel, but when gasified, nickel could be enriched in the same kind of ultra-centrifuge cascade used for U. The cost of enrichment from this process is well-known and probably applicable to nickel. Therefore we are faced with this scenario: what is the fair price of Nickel-62 in the event that LENR is proved and the demand skyrockets? This price - in the end will be a matter of politics but highly influenced by supply/demand economics and the desire of the military to have this kind of power available, especially in aviation. There will be subsidies to promote LENR - perhaps more than what was given to fission, solar energy and oil - due to its presumed ecological advantages but they will be hard fought. There are many independent companies providing isotopes of all kinds now, but in the end none of them own gas centrifuge plants for high volume. The price charged by an mothballed plant could be relatively low - given the sunk cost and need for jobs in states like Kentucky and Ohio where these plants exist and which can be switched over to nickel. Everything gets down to politics in the end, but that equation does not favor LENR in the USA, due to big oil ... but it does favor LENR in Asia. China is a wild-card in the rapid commercialization of LENR. Jones
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