------------------------- Via Workers World News Service Reprinted from the Dec. 19, 2002 issue of Workers World newspaper -------------------------
BUSH'S GROWING CONTRADICTION: HOW TO TURN INSPECTIONS INTO "REGIME CHANGE" By Fred Goldstein The administration of President George W. Bush has been displaying a combination of imperial arrogance and tactical desperation as it tries to deal with a growing political contradiction. Its political problem is how to reconcile its stated goal of eliminating alleged Iraqi weapons of mass destruction with its real policy, which it has not abandoned one iota, of "regime change." That is, overthrowing the government of Iraq and seizing the country with its oil wealth and its strategic position in the Middle East. The Iraqis have fully unmasked this contradiction by submitting nearly 12,000 pages of documentation that supply the very information demanded by Washington, its allies and its subordinates in the UN Security Council. The inspections process will not stop the Pentagon's drive towards war. But it poses an immediate problem for the military planners. Laying the political groundwork for the invasion through the inspections process requires that it be credible. This requires a respectable amount of time for the process to unfold in order to give all the allies and puppets of U.S. imperialism a cover for joining the war coalition. This means that the inspections timetable, short of some provocation set up by the U.S. government, will lag behind the rapid military preparations that are in progress as troops, war materiel and command structure are moved into position for war in the Gulf. DENOUNCING WHAT THEY THEMSELVES DEVISED Washington wrote all the intrusive and provocative provisions of the inspection requirements imposed on Iraq in the bellicose UN Resolution 1441. Yet the Bush administration began to denounce its own required inspections process almost before it began-fearing above all that it might succeed in absolving the Iraqis and undermine the U.S. government frame-up of Baghdad. Additionally, Bush feared that the process could drag on and create further political problems for Washington and the Pentagon as anti-U.S. sentiment builds around the world and the anti-war movement escalates its mobilization. Bush, Vice President Dick Cheney and Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld all went public as the inspections began, declaring, in different words, that inspections were doubtful to hopeless. They all held to the position that Iraq was harboring weapons of mass destruction and would never admit it. When asked for proof, Washington pleaded security considerations, relying on the general demonization of Saddam Hussein and Iraq to aid its evasions. The big business media chimed in with endless commentary claiming that the inspectors were inexperienced and understaffed, that Iraq was a big country, that the weapons were either hidden underground or were on vehicles moving around so they could not be detected, and so on. A full- scale propaganda campaign was launched to discredit the inspections in advance. The purpose of this campaign was to prepare the ground for Washington to declare Iraq in "material breach" of the resolution and launch an invasion. As the Iraqis were preparing their documentation, there was an element of political panic in the White House. Bush summoned Hans Blix, the head of the inspections team, to meet with Condoleezza Rice, his national security adviser. The purpose of the meeting was to pressure Blix into having the inspection teams "identify key Iraqi weapons scientists and spirit them out of Iraq so they can be offered asylum in exchange for disclosing where Saddam Hussein is hiding weapons of mass destruction," wrote the New York Times of Dec. 6. Blix was told to "make it a priority." 'WE'RE NOT SERVING AS A DEFECTION AGENCY' Blix, who is more reflective of the reluctant imperialist powers on the European continent who have little to gain by a U.S.-British war against Iraq, has a reputation to uphold and does not want to be seen as a complete stooge of the White House. He made a statement the following day that "I have said that we are not going to abduct anybody and we're not serving as a defection agency." Blix also asked the U.S. to hand over its evidence. Blix's defiant words were soon put to the test of deeds after the Iraqis handed over their document. He had announced that the document would be examined and sanitized by the UN agency Unmovic and then handed out to the Security Council. The council, including the U.S., voted unanimously to follow that procedure. But, according to the Washington Post of Dec. 10, "a number of senior administration officials were said to be unhappy at Friday's decision to give the inspectors first crack at the document, as suggested by Unmovic chairman Hans Blix." On Saturday morning the U.S. ambassador to the UN, John D. Negroponte, called Colombian UN ambassador Alfonso Valdivieso "to ask that the document be shared with the council's five permanent members." This puppet ambassador, who is the acting president of the Security Council, called together the members of the council on the orders of Secretary of State Colin Powell--who had just returned from Colombia, where he brought millions in aid to the repressive military there--and got all but the Syrians to agree. The Norwegians agreed under protest. Having overturned the consensus by imperialist pressure, "On Sunday night, U.S. diplomats accompanied Valdivieso to Blix's office to inform him of the decision," continued the Post. U.S. officials seized the document and whisked it off to Washington to "assist" in copying and distributing it, but only to the five permanent members of the Council. This defiant act of domination is a reflection of the anxiety in Washington over the course of events. "The Bush administration," wrote the New York Times on Dec. 9, "has alerted the CIA and national laboratories to be ready to go into overdrive, honing in on a few crucial Iraqi claims that the United States believes it can show to be false. But in private, administration officials concede that there is no single piece of dramatic intelligence that Iraq has continued to try to acquire nuclear, chemical and biological weapons." A day earlier, the Times had written that "The hawks in the administration are nervous, some experts say." It quoted Michael McFaul, a professor of political science at Stanford University who has advised both the Bush and Clinton administrations on Russian policy: "They are nervous that [Bush] will not pull the trigger." The hawks "thought they were in the driver's seat," added McFaul, but "now they are panicked." Why? Because, says the Times writer, "they agreed to drive Bush to the United Nations. Their fear is that Mr. Bush will balk at writing unilateral rules of the new international game.'" The brazen attempt to force abductions on the head of the inspections team and the seizure of the Iraqi disclosure documents are all part of Washington's attempt to speed up the political frame-up of Iraq in accordance with the timing of the Pentagon's military preparations. 'YOU SHOULD MAKE A CRISIS NOW' A prolonged process of inspections is anathema to the "regime changers." "If you think the result of the inspections process will be ambiguous, then the best time to strike is now," Kenneth Pollack, a former CIA expert on Iraq now at the Brookings Institution, was quoted as saying. (Washington Post, Dec. 7) "You should make a crisis now because you are not going to have any better cause for a crisis in six months. It is a fantasy to think the inspectors will come up with a smoking gun." Meanwhile, the Pentagon has 60,000 soldiers, sailors, marines and air force, as well as about 200 warplanes, in the region around Iraq. There are 1,000 military planners in Qatar. Tons of tanks, armored vehicles, cannons and munitions are distributed around the region, in "advanced positioning" to be used by troops not yet deployed. The Bush administration is working overtime to bribe and twist the arms of the Turkish ruling class to allow U.S. troops to set up staging areas for the vital northern front in the plan to take Baghdad. There is no other way for troops to come through the north. Furthermore, the Bush administration wants to be sure that its troops can pass quickly to seize the vast oil fields near Kirkuk in northern Iraq. Turkey has a new government headed by the moderate Islamic party, Justice and Development. Its leader, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, has been invited to meet with Bush. Erdogan was invited by Deputy Secretary of Defense Paul Wolfowitz during his latest visit to Turkey as part of the preparations for an attack on Iraq. The Pentagon has plans to modernize Turkish airfields and ports to accommodate an invasionary force. Washington is promising Turkey $5 billion and is fighting to get it into the European Union. There is a debate in the ruling class right now about how long to allow the inspections process to proceed. The mainstream establishment has had the predominant influence in diplomacy since Bush decided to go to the United Nations--his war-like rhetoric notwithstanding. They convinced him to drop the line of "regime change" and substitute inspections and disarmament. This political current is inclined to let the process continue until U.S. imperialism can build a grand coalition for the conquest. The most representative voice of this current, the New York Times, penned an editorial on Dec.10 entitled "Iraq in the Dock." The Times declared that the process of setting the stage for war with Iraq will "emerge gradually" and brushes aside "those determined to avoid war at all cost" who may "demand more direct and irrefutable evidence than this kind of coercive inspection program is capable of producing in the face of willful Iraqi deception. But the rigorous evidentiary standards of an American courtroom do not apply here. A case for military action is likely to be made by highlighting any major discrepancies between Iraq's report and American and other findings." Fully expecting to find these "major discrepancies," the Times advises that "before resorting to force, Washington and its allies must persuade other nations that Iraq's refusal to cooperate in its own disarmament leaves no acceptable alternative." The more impetuous right-wing elements who set the stage for the war and provided the driving force are impatient to dispense with full-scale diplomacy. While both sides have different strategies, they are equally bloodthirsty for war and in an unholy bloc with the common objective of recolonizing Iraq, taking over the oil fields and pursuing total domination over the Middle East. There is no telling which current will prevail-or whether they will merge for the war. Both the right wing and so-called "moderate" imperialists are enemies of the oppressed people and the working class everywhere. The anti-war movement must take advantage of the present situation to expose the fraudulent maneuvers of the Bush administration, which is now saying that the last thing it wants is combat--while it feverishly prepares for war. The only way to stop the war is through mass protest and militant struggle of the broadest possible character, bringing in all layers of society who are affected by the Pentagon's war drive, from the community to the factory, from the campus to the office. - END - (Copyright Workers World Service: Everyone is permitted to copy and distribute verbatim copies of this document, but changing it is not allowed. For more information contact Workers World, 55 W. 17 St., NY, NY 10011; via e-mail: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Subscribe wwnews- [EMAIL PROTECTED] Unsubscribe [EMAIL PROTECTED] Support the voice of resistance http://www.workers.org/orders/donate.php) ------------------ This message is sent to you by Workers World News Service. To subscribe, E-mail to: <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> To unsubscribe, E-mail to: <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> To switch to the DIGEST mode, E-mail to <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> Send administrative queries to <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
