The worse it gets, the better behaved we will be. From: castarritt . Sent: Thursday, March 19, 2020 2:15 PM To: AnimalFarm Microwave Users Group Subject: Re: [AFMUG] OT: virus anomalies
Here is the long term plan: https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf TLDR: Option 1: Do nothing, and 4+ million Americans die in a few months as the healthcare system collapses. Option 2: Do some quarantining and social distancing to flatten the curve, and maybe a million Americans die. Option 3: Shut down everything to stop the spread. Keep everything shut down for ~18 months until everyone is vaccinated. It looks like we are headed for Option 3 right now. With any luck, we might develop some effective treatments for the virus that would lessen the death toll of switching to Option 2. Also, they have developed an antibody test now, and anyone who tests positive for the antibodies will be safe from the virus, and unable to spread it to others, so at least those people will be able to go back to work. On Thu, Mar 19, 2020 at 2:50 PM Adam Moffett <[email protected]> wrote: Has anybody laid out what the long term plan is? We can't keep everybody at home forever and we can't stop all international trade and travel so sooner or later the virus has to run it's course, or so it seems to me. I know we're trying to slow down the spread so we don't overwhelm the hospital capacity and that's great. Are we going to somehow reduce social isolation over time in a controlled way, or will social isolation end organically as people get sick of staying home? On 3/19/2020 3:16 PM, Steve Jones wrote: I dont know how many times i need to point out this logic The US is undercounted, thats a given. undercounting does not equate hidden numbers of magnitude Heres the logic thats completely being ignored The deaths associated with COVID19 that werent tested would have been attributed to flu There has been no reported increase in flu deaths per the anticipated rates this year The testing that has been done is very promising. Yesterdays counts of those tested were running around 8 percent positive. This does NOT equate to 8 percent of the population. The "administration bad, nobody can just go get a test for curiousity" argument further strengthens this as a promising number. The ONLY people being tested for the most part, are those in the very high probability category. So of those assumed to be infected, only 8 percent of them actually are. We still havent hit globally the number of infections and deaths from the swine flu in the US alone. let me reiterate this GLOBALLY TODAY, there are less sick and dead, than from swine flu in the US ALONE. The current response is such that has never been seen in the history of the planet. Inmates are an issue, with a guard and an inmate at rikers island infected now, we have a national issue. if we dump the prisons, not only do we have a ton of criminals on the street, we have hundreds of thousands of indigent on the streets in the middle of a pandemic. (maybe not having locked up such a percentage of the population in the first place is a whole other OT rant). Iran dumped 70k inmates on the streets, i cant imagine that having helped their situation. Morons on spring break making a point of interacting even more than they normally would have is illogical enough to eliminate any logic. On Thu, Mar 19, 2020 at 2:00 PM Mathew Howard <[email protected]> wrote: I don't know that Russia's numbers are terribly inaccurate... it's really just starting to spread there now, and the numbers aren't far off what other countries reported early on, and the cases they have reported are almost all in Moscow. They also have much tighter border controls than most of the world, and they're going on lockdown earlier into the outbreak than most countries did... so it's not unbelievable that they'd have low numbers at this point. But who knows what's really going on in some of these countries... it certainly wouldn't surprise me if China is lying about their numbers, it all depends on what they think is in their best interests at this point, and I don't trust any information from or about North Korea, no matter what the source is, but the high level of government control over everything in North Korea could certainly give them an advantage in this situation. On Thu, Mar 19, 2020 at 1:42 PM Bill Prince <[email protected]> wrote: North Korea, Iraq, Iran, Russia, India, Mexico. I heard something on NPR this morning about mass graves in Iran. It may be years (or never) before we understand the scope of this. bp <part15sbs{at}gmail{dot}com> On 3/19/2020 11:37 AM, [email protected] wrote: I still believe North Korea has a huge problem that they are covering up. Especially in the labor camps. Communal sleeping barns etc. No sanitation facilities. From: Bill Prince Sent: Thursday, March 19, 2020 12:34 PM To: [email protected] Subject: Re: [AFMUG] OT: virus anomalies Only if they attribute it properly. There is plenty of data to indicate that deaths have been incorrectly attributed, bp <part15sbs{at}gmail{dot}com> On 3/19/2020 11:09 AM, James Howard wrote: the death count is the death count ---------------------------------------------------------------------- -- AF mailing list [email protected] http://af.afmug.com/mailman/listinfo/af_af.afmug.com -- AF mailing list [email protected] http://af.afmug.com/mailman/listinfo/af_af.afmug.com -- AF mailing list [email protected] http://af.afmug.com/mailman/listinfo/af_af.afmug.com -- AF mailing list [email protected] http://af.afmug.com/mailman/listinfo/af_af.afmug.com -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -- AF mailing list [email protected] http://af.afmug.com/mailman/listinfo/af_af.afmug.com
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