Based on recent experience, I don't think the published infection
rates are anywhere close to accurate. Why do I say that? My 10 yo.
daughter came down with something yesterday morning. She came in
our bedroom coughing, wheezing and short of breath. She had a
low-grade fever around 100. We have several kids with asthma, so
we gave her a breathing treatment using a nebulizer with albuterol
sulfate. Then we called our local clinic to see if we could get
her into a doctor. After telling the attendant about the situation,
instead of making an appointment, she referred us to a Utah state
COVID-19 hotline. We called that hotline, and repeated the
symptoms. That person told us that due because test kits are in
short supply, unless there is severe illness, they are telling
everyone who calls to simply self-quarantine, and call back if
things get worse.
How can you rely on any infection statistics if they're only
sampling those that are severely affected? It's obvious to me that
the published statistics don't represent the number of people
infected. Rather, they represent the number of severely ill people
who are infected. Those with mild illness are not being included
in the data. At least in Utah.
Craig
On Fri, Mar 20, 2020 at 8:34 AM Steve Jones
<[email protected] <mailto:[email protected]>> wrote:
So far population infection rates haven't hit more than 1
percent anywhere have they
On Fri, Mar 20, 2020, 12:07 AM Kurt Fankhauser
<[email protected] <mailto:[email protected]>> wrote:
I'm on the county health board here, they are
extremely worried about what is to come. They say the
"peak" and "flattening" isn't expected till Mid May. They
have not released that to the public yet because they don't
want to create panic but sounds like this lockdown could be
a new way of life for at least a few months. They are also
talking about the possibility of refrigerated semi trailers
for the dead bodies if they get that many. Our county
population is over 40,000 and between the two hospitals
here they have only 8 ventilators. If just one half of 1
percent of the population here needs critical care that is
over 200 people. The two hospitals here are only setup for
a couple dozen ICU beds each. Traditionally trauma patients
that come in here are forwarded to one of the bigger cities
which will not be an option due to overstretched resources
in the bigger cities and them having even bigger problems
than us. Consider that some of the data suggests 10-20% of
the infected will need hospitalized you start to grasp the
real threat to the healthcare system. Trump knows all this,
he was probably briefed with the numbers over a month ago.
He would not be tanking the economy right now if this
wasn't a real threat of happening. If it wasn't for the
travel ban we would probably be right there with Italy as
we speak...
On Fri, Mar 20, 2020 at 12:21 AM Mathew Howard
<[email protected] <mailto:[email protected]>> wrote:
It's especially bad when revolting people revolt...
On Thu, Mar 19, 2020 at 11:01 PM Jason McKemie
<[email protected]
<mailto:[email protected]>> wrote:
People are revolting, but they will start to revolt...
On Thursday, March 19, 2020, James Howard
<[email protected] <mailto:[email protected]>> wrote:
are you saying that you're not revolting now?
Makes me think of the 3 Stooges line "I
resemble that remark"......
Oh wait. Did you mean that people will start
to revolt? Hmmm.... I thought you meant people
were going to be revolting and most people
already are.....
------------------------------------------------------------------------
*From:* AF <[email protected]
<mailto:[email protected]>> on behalf of
Jason McKemie <[email protected]
<mailto:[email protected]>>
*Sent:* Thursday, March 19, 2020 8:37:51 PM
*To:* AnimalFarm Microwave Users Group
*Subject:* Re: [AFMUG] OT: virus anomalies
Yeah, you can't have businesses closed past
then or you're going to have people revolting
(myself included).
On Thu, Mar 19, 2020 at 3:43 PM Bill Prince
<[email protected]
<mailto:[email protected]>> wrote:
The isolation can not last more than a few
weeks, or maybe a month - month and a half.
At that point, we should have reduced the
number of walking infections without
symptoms, and maybe have the ability to
actually test for it. After that, it's a
crap shoot.
bp
<part15sbs{at}gmail{dot}com>
On 3/19/2020 1:18 PM, Mike Hammett wrote:
With "flatten the curve" as your primary
tool expected to take years and people
only able to half pay attention for a few
weeks, we'll have to find something else.
-----
Mike Hammett
Intelligent Computing Solutions
<http://www.ics-il.com/>
<https://www.facebook.com/ICSIL><https://plus.google.com/+IntelligentComputingSolutionsDeKalb><https://www.linkedin.com/company/intelligent-computing-solutions><https://twitter.com/ICSIL>
Midwest Internet Exchange
<http://www.midwest-ix.com/>
<https://www.facebook.com/mdwestix><https://www.linkedin.com/company/midwest-internet-exchange><https://twitter.com/mdwestix>
The Brothers WISP
<http://www.thebrotherswisp.com/>
<https://www.facebook.com/thebrotherswisp>
<https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCXSdfxQv7SpoRQYNyLwntZg>
------------------------------------------------------------------------
*From: *"Bill Prince"
<[email protected]>
<mailto:[email protected]>
*To: *[email protected] <mailto:[email protected]>
*Sent: *Thursday, March 19, 2020 2:54:45 PM
*Subject: *Re: [AFMUG] OT: virus anomalies
The "plan" (no jokes please) seems to be
short term isolation to try and flatten
the curve. With that, all the infected
people not having symptoms will become
immune (to some extent) and no longer be
contagious. I don't think we can keep
people bottled up for more than a few weeks.
bp
<part15sbs{at}gmail{dot}com>
On 3/19/2020 12:49 PM, Adam Moffett wrote:
Has anybody laid out what the long
term plan is?
We can't keep everybody at home
forever and we can't stop all
international trade and travel so
sooner or later the virus has to run
it's course, or so it seems to me.
I know we're trying to slow down the
spread so we don't overwhelm the
hospital capacity and that's great.
Are we going to somehow reduce social
isolation over time in a controlled
way, or will social isolation end
organically as people get sick of
staying home?
On 3/19/2020 3:16 PM, Steve Jones wrote:
I dont know how many times i need
to point out this logic
The US is undercounted, thats a
given. undercounting does not
equate hidden numbers of magnitude
Heres the logic thats completely
being ignored
The deaths associated with COVID19
that werent tested would have been
attributed to flu
There has been no reported
increase in flu deaths per the
anticipated rates this year
The testing that has been done is
very promising. Yesterdays counts
of those tested were running
around 8 percent positive. This
does NOT equate to 8 percent of
the population. The
"administration bad, nobody can
just go get a test for curiousity"
argument further strengthens this
as a promising number. The ONLY
people being tested for the most
part, are those in the very high
probability category. So of those
assumed to be infected, only 8
percent of them actually are.
We still havent hit globally the
number of infections and deaths
from the swine flu in the US
alone. let me reiterate this
GLOBALLY TODAY, there are less
sick and dead, than from swine flu
in the US ALONE. The current
response is such that has never
been seen in the history of the
planet.
Inmates are an issue, with a guard
and an inmate at rikers island
infected now, we have a national
issue. if we dump the prisons, not
only do we have a ton of criminals
on the street, we have hundreds of
thousands of indigent on the
streets in the middle of a
pandemic. (maybe not having locked
up such a percentage of the
population in the first place is a
whole other OT rant). Iran dumped
70k inmates on the streets, i cant
imagine that having helped their
situation.
Morons on spring break making a
point of interacting even more
than they normally would have is
illogical enough to eliminate any
logic.
On Thu, Mar 19, 2020 at 2:00 PM
Mathew Howard
<[email protected]
<mailto:[email protected]>> wrote:
I don't know that Russia's
numbers are terribly
inaccurate... it's really just
starting to spread there now,
and the numbers aren't far off
what other countries reported
early on, and the cases they
have reported are almost all
in Moscow. They also have much
tighter border controls than
most of the world, and they're
going on lockdown earlier into
the outbreak than most
countries did... so it's not
unbelievable that they'd have
low numbers at this point.
But who knows what's really
going on in some of these
countries... it certainly
wouldn't surprise me if China
is lying about their numbers,
it all depends on what they
think is in their best
interests at this point, and I
don't trust any information
from or about North Korea, no
matter what the source is, but
the high level of government
control over everything in
North Korea could certainly
give them an advantage in this
situation.
On Thu, Mar 19, 2020 at 1:42
PM Bill Prince
<[email protected]
<mailto:[email protected]>>
wrote:
North Korea, Iraq, Iran,
Russia, India, Mexico. I
heard something on NPR
this morning about mass
graves in Iran. It may be
years (or never) before we
understand the scope of this.
bp
<part15sbs{at}gmail{dot}com>
On 3/19/2020 11:37 AM,
[email protected]
<mailto:[email protected]>
wrote:
I still believe North
Korea has a huge
problem that they are
covering up.
Especially in the
labor camps. Communal
sleeping barns etc.
No sanitation facilities.
*From:* Bill Prince
*Sent:* Thursday,
March 19, 2020 12:34 PM
*To:* [email protected]
*Subject:* Re: [AFMUG]
OT: virus anomalies
Only if they attribute
it properly. There is
plenty of data to
indicate that deaths
have been incorrectly
attributed,
bp
<part15sbs{at}gmail{dot}com>
On 3/19/2020 11:09 AM,
James Howard wrote:
the death count is
the death count
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