I'm thinking a combination of 1 (a DAO) and 4 (self-replicating robots, robot factories that make more robots, etc.).... with artificial scientist/engineering capability that can discover new kinds of machinery and new theories of the behavior of various manifestations of mass/energy
A flourishing SingularityNET with its digital tentacles into IoT, intelligent control systems for factories, etc. could provide the start for this. Fortunately we're aiming to inject SingularityNET with a compassion-oriented value system ;) Again, it's not a matter of the first strongly self-modifying / self-improving AGI being smaller than human civilization... it's a matter of such an AGI leveraging human civilization toward its own growth and improvement, as a way of getting the first stages of its recursive self-improvement going... Of course -- if current physics is accurate -- the expansion of a self-improving AGI will be limited by physical law, the Bekenstein bound, etc. But these limits are far beyond the scope of human-level intelligence... ben On Mon, Feb 11, 2019 at 8:01 AM Matt Mahoney <[email protected]> wrote: > > I'm not sure what kind of "radical" self improving system you have in mind > that is smaller than human civilization and uses it's resources to grow > exponentially. Some examples come to mind: > > 1. A corporation that re-invests its profits by buying computers and hiring > people to operate them. > > 2. A computer virus or worm. > > 3. A genetically engineered pathogen or parasite. > > 4. Self-replicating robots. > > All of these will stop growing when they use up the resources of the > environment that supports them. > > How would you classify a self improving AGI? By what mechanism would it > acquire computing power or the resources (atoms and energy) it needs to grow? > > On Sat, Feb 9, 2019, 9:26 PM Ben Goertzel <[email protected] wrote: >> >> *** >> Suppose you assembled 1000 of the smartest people in the world into a >> village and cut it off from the rest of the world. No travel in or >> out. Disconnected from the power grid and internet except internally. >> How fast could this group implement AGI, having to build its own >> computers using only materials on hand, as well as grow their own food >> and supply their basic needs? >> >> Suppose you (an expert on AGI) were the only living human on Earth. >> All products of civilization like buildings, roads, vehicles, >> machinery, books, tools, etc did not exist. You had to hunt and forage >> for food and find shelter in the wild. How fast could you develop AGI? >> >> Do you see why human level intelligence is insufficient for recursive >> self improvement? >> *** >> >> But AGI is not growing in a vacuum, it's able to leverage the tools >> of human civilization, and the Global Brain of humans and computers >> and other devices that exist right now etc. >> >> Leveraging all these existing resources, the right algorithm using >> relatively modest resources may be able to make the leap to radical >> recursive self-improvement >> >> The question is what small tweak/addition to the current Global Brain could >> let it serve as the launching-pad for the next phase, the recursively >> self-improving superintelligence... >> >> -- Ben >> >> On Sun, Feb 10, 2019 at 2:46 AM Matt Mahoney <[email protected]> wrote: >> > >> > On Sat, Feb 9, 2019 at 5:31 AM Ben Goertzel <[email protected]> wrote: >> > > *** >> > > First, the threshold for recursive self improvement is not human level >> > > intelligence, but human civilization level intelligence. That's higher >> > > by a factor of 7 billion. >> > > *** >> > > >> > > Obviously this is an upper bound... an AGI engineered for recursive >> > > self-improvement could potentially do it with much less resources than >> > > this... >> > >> > Imagine that a developed country like China or the USA or Singapore >> > (for example) closed its borders, cut off all international trade and >> > internet traffic and then tried to implement AGI. How much would this >> > slow it down? >> > >> > Suppose you assembled 1000 of the smartest people in the world into a >> > village and cut it off from the rest of the world. No travel in or >> > out. Disconnected from the power grid and internet except internally. >> > How fast could this group implement AGI, having to build its own >> > computers using only materials on hand, as well as grow their own food >> > and supply their basic needs? >> > >> > Suppose you (an expert on AGI) were the only living human on Earth. >> > All products of civilization like buildings, roads, vehicles, >> > machinery, books, tools, etc did not exist. You had to hunt and forage >> > for food and find shelter in the wild. How fast could you develop AGI? >> > >> > Do you see why human level intelligence is insufficient for recursive >> > self improvement? >> > >> > > *** >> > > Second is Eroom's Law. The price of new drugs doubles every 9 years. >> > > Global life expectancy has been increasing 0.2 years per year since >> > > the early 1900's, but that rate has slowed a bit since 1990. Testing >> > > new medical treatment is expensive because testing requires human >> > > subjects and the value of human life is increasing as the economy >> > > grows. >> > > *** >> > > >> > > This will be busted when we get sufficiently accurate systems biology >> > > simulation models. But in any case it's an obstacle to bio research not >> > > to AGI... >> > >> > We do not have any programs that input a chemical formula (like H2O) >> > and compute chemical properties (like the freezing point of water) by >> > modeling the interactions of atoms. The reason is that the computation >> > requires solving Schrodinger's equation for n particles, which runs in >> > exponential time in n on a non quantum computer. I suppose it is >> > possible in theory to model the 10^28 atoms in a human body to predict >> > the effects of new medical interventions. But that technology is far >> > away, and even then we can't expect a quantum computer to run faster >> > than the process it is modeling. For now we can't even answer basic >> > questions, like whether calorie restriction extends life in humans, >> > because for one thing the experiments take so long to run. >> > >> > > *** >> > > Third, Moore's Law doesn't cover software or knowledge collection, two >> > > of the three components of AGI (the other being hardware). Human >> > > knowledge collection is limited to how fast you can communicate, about >> > > 150 words per minute per person. >> > > *** >> > > >> > > This obviously makes no sense. E.g. modern face recognition AI gained >> > > knowledge >> > > much faster than this, by sucking up a lot of photos all at once. Once >> > > NLP is >> > > sufficiently solved, AI will be able to suck up a lot of knowledge by >> > > reading the Web. >> > > It won't need knowledge to be explicitly typed in for it. >> > >> > All of the written knowledge on the internet was either typed in or >> > spoken at some point. It still makes up less than 1% of the human >> > knowledge that an AGI would need to model the economy, to know what >> > you want without having to explicitly ask for it. You don't have a >> > robot that will clean your house because it wouldn't know whether a >> > magazine on the floor belongs on the table or in the trash. In the >> > time it takes you to tell it, you could have picked it up yourself. It >> > doesn't matter how smart it is. It's how fast you can communicate the >> > 10^7 bits of human knowledge in your brain that nobody knows except >> > you. >> > >> > -- >> > -- Matt Mahoney, [email protected] >> >> >> -- >> Ben Goertzel, PhD >> http://goertzel.org >> >> "The dewdrop world / Is the dewdrop world / And yet, and yet …" -- >> Kobayashi Issa > > Artificial General Intelligence List / AGI / see discussions + participants + > delivery options Permalink -- Ben Goertzel, PhD http://goertzel.org "The dewdrop world / Is the dewdrop world / And yet, and yet …" -- Kobayashi Issa ------------------------------------------ Artificial General Intelligence List: AGI Permalink: https://agi.topicbox.com/groups/agi/Ta6fce6a7b640886a-M045826bd2be2493586571430 Delivery options: https://agi.topicbox.com/groups/agi/subscription
