On 6/29/19 7:06 AM, Basile Starynkevitch wrote:
On 6/29/19 5:21 AM, Alan Grimes wrote:
[email protected] wrote:
An AGI megaproject would require thousands of people working during
several decades on it. Costing tens of billions of US$ or ???.
As far as I know, it has not started. Even worse, I cannot name any
megaproject today in the information technology domain.
uh, what planet are u on?
http://www.oecd.org/going-digital/ai/private-equity-investment-in-artificial-intelligence.pdf
https://www.thetechedvocate.org/six-countries-leading-the-ai-race/
https://www.forbes.com/sites/jeanbaptiste/2019/02/12/venture-capital-funding-for-artificial-intelligence-startups-hit-record-high-in-2018/#11ad12a141f7
https://www.statista.com/statistics/607716/worldwide-artificial-intelligence-market-revenues/
https://secure.wealthdaily.com/187581?device=c&keyword=ai%20intelligence&gclid=CjwKCAjw9dboBRBUEiwA7VrrzTkh6YVG_yRrATxn6eInrUs-oMooia6fWUg5_JVCuGQnrulIQwt1ZhoCY28QAvD_BwE
https://www.google.com/search?sa=N&q=global+ai+investment&tbm=isch&source=univ&ved=2ahUKEwjombvw3Y3jAhWKneAKHcNnAkc4ChCwBHoECAUQAQ&biw=1060&bih=742
But AI is not AGI, it today is mostly big data and machine learning.
I mentioned AGI, not AI. That makes a huge difference.
Notice that what was called AI in the 1980s (the goal -or dream- of
achieving human like intelligence in some artificial system) is today
called AGI. This is a change of terminology.
And, as far as I know, there is no today a single software system on
which tens of thousands computer scientist are working continuously
for an entire career, e.g. several decades.
Again, compare the current large AI projects to something like ITER,
or the Apollo program. We have no -single- that large and that
ambitious software project on Earth.
And while I did mention The Mythical Man-Month previously, I forgot to
mention an important phrase from it: If one woman can make a baby in 9
months, 9 women won't make a baby in 1 month.
The equivalent is probably true for AGI, replacing months by decades. A
hundred of ambitious AI projects won't advance AGI, even if run in
parallel. Exactly like ten thousands of rocket clubs firing rockets to
50 km don't improve any human to Mars space mission.
We don't have the social & political structures to even start an
ambitious single software project with 10000 computer scientists working
for several decades. And we might not even know what organizational
structure could make such a project possible.
So I don't expect AGI to come soon.
--
Basile STARYNKEVITCH == http://starynkevitch.net/Basile
opinions are mine only - les opinions sont seulement miennes
Bourg La Reine, France
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Artificial General Intelligence List: AGI
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