You're a legend On Sat, 12 Oct 2019 at 21:52, Matt Mahoney <[email protected]> wrote:
> My goal 20 years ago was to produce AGI, maybe a chatbot. But nobody knew > how to do it at the time. So I did a cost estimate based on the only known > working example. > > A human brain has 6 x 10^14 synapses. An equivalent sized neural network > with 50-100 ms integration time requires 12 to 24 petaflops and a petabyte > of RAM. And human knowledge is not a blank slate either. Half of what you > know (on the order of 10^9 bits each) is coded in your DNA, equivalent to > 300 million lines of code. > > The obvious application of AGI is automating human labor. The ROI would be > world GDP divided by market interest rates, or about USD $1 quadrillion. > The fact that we haven't done it yet suggests that AGI is a really hard > problem that you will probably fail at if you go it alone. > > Here is a list of companies that have since produced somewhat useful AI > products, and their market caps: > > Apple (Siri), $1 trillion. > Microsoft (Cortana), $1 trillion. > Amazon (Alexa), $850 billion. > Alphabet (Google), $850 billion. > > So I did related research in data compression. Some conclusions from over > a decade of research: > > - The best language models are based on neural network algorithms (that I > developed and others refined). > > - Intelligence (measured by prediction accuracy or compression) increases > with the log of computing speed and the log of memory. > > So I got my Ph.D. in 2003 at age 48, made some money, and retired 5 years > ago at 59. Now I hang around just to troll the list. :) > > On Sat, Oct 12, 2019, 12:18 PM <[email protected]> wrote: > >> pinky and the brain. >> > *Artificial General Intelligence List <https://agi.topicbox.com/latest>* > / AGI / see discussions <https://agi.topicbox.com/groups/agi> + > participants <https://agi.topicbox.com/groups/agi/members> + delivery > options <https://agi.topicbox.com/groups/agi/subscription> Permalink > <https://agi.topicbox.com/groups/agi/Td4a5dff7d017676c-M9b59fd537e358e71af6b5093> > -- Stefan Reich BotCompany.de // Java-based operating systems ------------------------------------------ Artificial General Intelligence List: AGI Permalink: https://agi.topicbox.com/groups/agi/Td4a5dff7d017676c-M8204e5051a49f7d70890ea99 Delivery options: https://agi.topicbox.com/groups/agi/subscription
