I'm pretty sure I will get the covid-19 vaccine if they come up with one. I mean unless I have a positive antibody test and don't need one. I don't know why 25% of Americans are already opposed in advance to a non-existent vaccine. Wait until we have one and the studies on safety and effectiveness are done. I'm betting that a shot hurts less than the disease.
Not that I'm overly concerned. I figure that 25-50% of the world population will catch it eventually, and 0.4-0.7% of them will die. That's 10-15 million over the next couple of years. The fatality rate has the same age and comorbidity distribution as deaths from all causes. Your risk of dying from it if you get infected is the same as dying in the next 4-6 months if you don't. Either risk doubles every 8-9 years of age. The average fatality had a life expectancy of 12 years before infection. The overall effect on life expectancy is 12 years x 0.25-0.5 x .004-.007 = about a week. Global life expectancy is 73.2 years and increasing at the rate of 0.2 years per year. The effect of the pandemic is to delay global progress in human health by 5 weeks. The economic and human costs from the lockdown are harder to estimate. Life expectancy is strongly correlated with income. Progress in global health is due mainly to the 2-3% increase in per capita GDP over the last couple of centuries. A 25% cut to the economy would be a 10 year setback, cutting life expectancy by 2 years if the effects were permanent. But some fraction that is hard to forecast will recover quickly. Each year of education is associated with 1.5 years of life expectancy. Closing schools now kills people 50-60 years later. On Wed, May 13, 2020, 8:57 PM Alan Grimes via AGI <agi@agi.topicbox.com> wrote: > U know something, I forgot why I just built myself a 3960x/96gb ram... > > I mean with all the new I/O capacity I could slot some pretty mean > accelerator cards, with > https://gcc.gnu.org/wiki/Offloading It might not even be that hard to > program. I forgot why I bought the machine tho, kinda been mindlessly > completing a plan I came up with about a year ago. The machine is still > called Tortoise. =P > > But then what exactly is qualitative thingy between mindlessness and > mindfullness. I mean in the mindless category, we have little kiddies > younger than about four years old. Or demented geezers, or anyone who > has voted for any Democrat since Obamacare was passed, or anyone who > believes that there will be a vaccine... > > Actually there will be something that they will call a vaccine but if > you really knew what was in it, you wouldn't want it. =| Dude, listen, > I'm telling you. Unless someone litterally has a gun pointed at you, > don't take the GD shot. If that actually happens to you, think very hard > about why there was a gun pointed at you. > > It may soon be too late to work on AGI at all. =(((( > > Anyway, I don't really have much to say rn, just felt like making a post... > > -- > The vaccine is a LIE. > > Powers are not rights. > ------------------------------------------ Artificial General Intelligence List: AGI Permalink: https://agi.topicbox.com/groups/agi/Tc32c76a0c85e2ca9-Mc8643eb4dcb2b759f8aeefed Delivery options: https://agi.topicbox.com/groups/agi/subscription
