On point #1, Maybe we can expound on the meaning of "judgement".  By the
dictionary it's "an opinion or conclusion", but in common parlance we might
interpret a judgement as "a belief that we desire others to agree with.".
An even more cynical take would be "a belief we expect to be accepted by
others on grounds of appeal to authority, i.e an expert or judge".  We
might even establish a chain of social value, from greatest to least:

1) Correct Judgement
2) Correct Opinion
3) Incorrect Judgement
4) Incorrect Opinion

Where correctness is based on social acceptance, and judgement vs opinion
is based on the source's expertise in the subject matter.  Social value
being a measurement of long term durability and benefit to building upon.
For instance, one might have a "Correct Judgement" that the "concept of
laws" has long term durability, and there are societal benefits from
building on (instantiating) laws.  Conversely, the "incorrect opinion" that
some laws are meant to be broken may not have long term durability, and a
negative social benefit if done.

On point #2, I think only activist AI Ethicists are fighting for control
over the grounds of the decisions (because they see the danger if no one
champions the social good); I believe you are right that a majority of AI
developers are not concerning themselves with the grounds, beyond subtly
allowing their own bias.  (Not pointing fingers, in most AI approaches I
believe escaping your own groups' biases is impossible)

AIKR taken to heart on point #3.

Agreed on the premise of point #4, and I'll inject that an AGI developer
ought to know that a judgement is an opinion within a space-time-context
frame.
I've continued work on something I'm calling Facet Theory, which is
independent of the one by Guttman on wikipedia by the same name.  The goal
is to model contiguous space-time-context frames of understanding as
something called a facet, which have interesting properties where two or
more facets meet along an edge.  For instance where two similar, but
incompatible paradigms (groups of opinions) meet, e.g. Newtonian and
Relativistic physics.  In that example I like to visualize those as two
facets on a 3D diamond.  They are both reasonable approximations of
understanding for their own particular space, time, and context.  They may
both be useful models of understanding how the world works (even at the
same time in history).  One may reign supreme for centuries, and just
because a more accurate, "better" understanding is discovered in the future
does not mean that it is totally replaced.  "Context" in
"space-time-context" is a catch-all for other dimensions of understanding,
such as:
* Socio-Cultural (body language in a certain social or cultural situation)
* Information Source (The news being dire, but from a certain news channel)
* Related Context (The food being good, related to a particular lunch
event; A building having a good aesthetic, within the concept of Brutalist
architecture)
* etc.


In this way the AGI may not only survive cognitive dissonance, but thrive
in it by cognicizing at levels above the compartmentalized facets
it encounters.

Something that is related to (my) Facet Theory but not quite the same is
Prototype theory, where our esteemed Antonio Lieto gets a mention:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prototype_theory
I suppose a prototype of a concept would exist at the centroid of one of my
facets.

What we think of as subjective judgements are just opinions whose variance
is greatest on the contextual scale (i.e. by person, place) and second
greatest variance by time (your favorite music might change over your
lifetime)
However your objective judgements can be modeled as opinions with less
variance over context, space and time, but still subject to instances where
it does not hold true.  "This apple" refers to an apple in a particular
space and time, but in the context of an entity moving close to c, the
apple may not be red.  It also may not be red in the context of a
colorblind persons' context, as distinguishable from green.

Self referential statements such as "I think therefore I am", or axiomatic
systems like mathematics absolve themselves from many dimensions and
therefore seem profound to us because they are without counterexample
across time, space, or context.
Fleeting statements such as "my head itches right now" seem least profound
simply because of the number of dimensional constraints on the facet.

NARS has some great parts, and part of my substrate is based on what NARS
can achieve.  However there are a great many things which, once
incorporated into NARS, allow a more human-compatible understanding to take
place.  For instance, instead of only frequency and confidence of an
experience, also incorporating a learned confidence of the data source,
when it was learned, etc.

You may imagine a human case where you have to believe your brother who has
old information, or a dubious politician.  An AGI will be put in analogous
situations, and a conscious system also consumes the reflection of its own
past decisions, not only the reputation of external data sources.

For the last part of point #4, saying "follow the money" may sound cynical
but it's rarely wrong.  Modern AI developers (especially Weak AI) will
likely build systems to maximize stakeholders return, whatever the
judgements.

I don't have it all figured out, but this past year of sabbatical has been
a tremendous help.  Instead of trying to cram my own opinions into the AGI,
it needs to be able to interpret reality on its own, and learn to reflect
on its own judgements like a child.  From an AI Safety perspective I've
embarked on what I call Pathology First Development, which is basically
generating failure modes of being that are analogous with human
neuropathologies and psychopathologies.  The motivation is that if
pathological behavior patterns can be simulated and recognized, an AGI
could be taught to avoid behaviors that lead to these patterns.

Daniel Jue


On Fri, May 20, 2022 at 1:48 AM Mike Archbold <[email protected]> wrote:

> MOTIVATIONS
> 
> Is the following fair?
> 
> * There seems to be a prevailing, tacit climate of opinion in AI that
> a judgment is correct primarily if it is 1) equivalent to prior
> human-caused judgments (supervised) or 2) due to rewards.
> 
> *Thus there seems to be no need for developers to concern themselves
> with the grounds of the decision; ie., WHY *this* specific judgment?
> (just point to the data and precedent)
> 
> *But the problem is the combinatorial explosion:  in a real world
> settings often novel variations occur, each nuance bearing a thousand
> little preferences, values, probabilities that have not specifically
> been trained for.
> 
> *So it seems like an AGI developer ought to know what a judgment is,
> and to design accordingly. For example, we can think of purely
> objective judgments ("this apple is red") or more subjective judgments
> ("I think blues is superior to jazz, but not in the future").
> Presently it seems like modern AI regards both as valid if the answer
> fits some pattern.
> 
> ~~~~~~~~~~
> 
> By the way I know NARS holds "judgment" as one of its major
> components, need to re-examine)
> 
> Mike A


-- 
Daniel Jue
Cognami LLC
240-515-7802
www.cognami.ai

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