On Thu, Mar 28, 2024, 2:34 PM Quan Tesla <quantes...@gmail.com> wrote:
> Would you like a sensible response? What's your position on the > probability of AGI without the fine structure constant? > If the fine structure constant were much different than 1/137.0359992 then the binding energy between atoms relative to their size would not allow the right chemistry for intelligent life to evolve. Likewise for the other 25 or so free parameters of the standard model and general relativity or whatever undiscovered theory encompasses both. The anthropic principle makes perfect sense in a countably infinite multiverse consisting of an enumeration of finite universes, one of which we necessarily observe. Wolfram believes our universe can be expressed in a few lines of code. Yudkowsky says a few hundred bits. I agree. I calculated the Bekenstein bound of the Hubble radius at 2.95 x 10^122 bits, which implies about 400 bits in a model where the N'th universe runs for N steps. But I don't see how solving this is necessary for AGI. As I described in 2006, prediction measures intelligence and compression measures prediction. LLMs using neural networks (the approach I advocated) are now proof that you can pass the Turing test and fake human consciousness with nothing more than text prediction. https://mattmahoney.net/dc/text.html When I joined this list over 20 years ago, there was a lot of activity, mostly using symbolic approaches like those of the AI winter in the decades before that. People failed or gave up and left the list. In 2013 I published a paper estimating the cost of AGI at $1 quadrillion. We are, after all, building something that can automate $100 trillion in human labor per year. Right now the bottleneck is hardware. You need roughly 10 petaflops, 1 petabyte, and 1 MW of electricity to simulate a human brain sized neural network. But in my paper I assumed that Moore's law would solve the hardware problem and the most expensive part would be knowledge collection. https://mattmahoney.net/costofai.pdf Of course, the cost is the reason I didn't write an open source implementation of CMR. If a trillion dollar company can't get Google+ or Threads off the ground, what compelling reason can I give to get a billion people to join? But yes, AGI will happen because the payoff is so enormous. It will profoundly change the way we live. ------------------------------------------ Artificial General Intelligence List: AGI Permalink: https://agi.topicbox.com/groups/agi/T5c24d9444d9d9cda-M85dc3ef5cda3e15deab9e4ab Delivery options: https://agi.topicbox.com/groups/agi/subscription
