Just a comment to inject into this discussion: Prediction is great when it is possible, but that is rare in our world of imperfect information.
Modern economics has brought us the concept of optimal action in the face if imperfect information. This leans on concepts like volatility, where tiny (and hence unpredictable) contributions can have huge effects. I think the emphasis should NOT be prediction, but rather on the computation of optimal action in the ABSENCE of prediction. Of course that is a more complex concept, so it has so far evaded deep discussion here. Note that this is the stock and trade of high speed trading software, so people ARE already making this work in the real world. Any thoughts? Steve Richfield ================== On Tue, Jun 19, 2012 at 1:50 PM, Jim Bromer <[email protected]> wrote: > Logan Streondj <[email protected]> wrote: > Infering is a form of carrying knowledge from one place and applying it in > a different place or time. > > > This is the real question but it does not provide us with an answer. All > the narrow forms of AI do offer solutions to certain kinds of problems, but > is there a general way to work from uncertainty (about most every basis to > make the determination) toward greater certainty that would allow us to say > that a particular kind of knowledge that worked in another situation could > work in this situation? If you base inference on similarities then the > problem is how do you use automation (in other words a program) to detect > similarities without some absolute method that some of the aspects of the > two similar events are of a kind? > > Jim Bromer > > > > > On Tue, Jun 19, 2012 at 3:42 PM, Jim Bromer <[email protected]> wrote: > >> Logan, >> I also cannot predict the kinds of replies that I will get. >> Of course, prediction is something that human beings can do. I mentioned >> that in my previous message. However, I do not see this group as swirling >> around the question of what kinds of things human beings can do but around >> the question of what can we do to make our computer programs act smarter. >> In that sense, intelligence is not a product of prediction, prediction is a >> product of intelligence. >> If anyone has proof that AGI is a product of prediction then he has >> solved the problems that are constantly being discussed in this group. >> >> I think there was another author who popularized probability and >> prediction in the 1970s. >> >> Your definition of inference is interesting and it is a more >> sophisticated way of understanding the problem then the usual refrain of >> the false promise of probability and prediction. >> Jim Bromer >> >> >> >> On Tue, Jun 19, 2012 at 3:33 PM, Logan Streondj <[email protected]>wrote: >> >>> I agree with Jim that there is too much focus on "prediction". >>> >>> Though here the obsession might be related to how Ray Kurzweil, a man >>> famous for his accurate predictions, chooses to define intelligence as the >>> ability to predict. >>> >>> If prediction was a normal thing, then Ray wouldn't have gotten famous >>> for it. >>> Amongst us ordinary humans, at least around here in Canada, and on the >>> internet, people rarely if ever mention the word "prediction". And very few >>> if anyone claims to make accurate predictions. >>> >>> Kurzweil mentions prediction as necessary for things like hunting or >>> gathering food. >>> For instance projecting the vector of an animal as is runs away, >>> or infering that if fruit was gathered in an area at a time of year, >>> it may be available at same place next year at similar time. >>> >>> However projecting, infering, and predicting are 3 different words, with >>> different meanings. >>> >>> Projecting is a form of planning ahead. >>> Infering is a form of carrying knowledge from one place and applying it >>> in a different place or time. >>> Predicting is a form of prophecy or foretelling based on special >>> knowledge. >>> >>> Most people infer and project, but very few predict. >>> >>> For instance in New Age cultures, many humans have had their careers >>> broken by making false predictions. Also no one (but Ray) claims to make >>> predictions based on intelligence, but usually based on things like >>> intuition, and telepathic communications. >>> >>> Maybe I'm committing the fallacy of making a distinction without a >>> difference. Perhaps all those words mean the same thing. >>> >>> Though I'd like to state that there are other ways of getting food, that >>> don't relate to predictive ability. >>> For instance how does an animal get food, they find a signature of the >>> food-item, for instance a smell, sound or shape, and then move towards it, >>> until their jaws are clenching it. >>> I guess you could say they "predicted" the food was there, based on the >>> signature. >>> As it certainly is possible that following a signature, will lead to a >>> non-food item, >>> for instance if the signature is lost, or is being produced by something >>> else, i.e. carnivorous flower. >>> >>> >>> >>> It is also possible that everything can be classified as prediction, >>> for instance when saying the alphabet, we predict what the next letter >>> is, before saying it. >>> This would mean that every hello world program uses prediction, as it >>> loads the hello world string, before printing it to screen. >>> *shrugs* >>> >>> it depends, do we want prediction to lose all meaning, by applying it >>> just about anything. >>> Or do we want to be specific with what we are saying, and only use words >>> like "prediction" in the way that non AGI mailing list people use it, as >>> a shorter-term version of prophesy, based on special knowledge. >>> >>> For instance even though I consider myself intelligence, I can't predict >>> the content of any reply or if there even will be replies, though I can >>> infer that there may be replies, as this is a mailing list, where people >>> often reply. >>> >>> >>> >>> >>> >>> On Tue, Jun 19, 2012 at 1:48 PM, Piaget Modeler < >>> [email protected]> wrote: >>> >>>> Jim, >>>> >>>> Is this your actual belief or is this disinformation? >>>> >>>> ------------------------------ >>>> Date: Tue, 19 Jun 2012 10:40:22 -0400 >>>> Subject: [agi] Prediction Did Not Work (except in narrow ai.) >>>> From: [email protected] >>>> To: [email protected] >>>> >>>> >>>> The original idea behind the use of "prediction" in AI was that the >>>> prediction could be compared against the actuality and that comparison >>>> could be used to test the theory that produced the prediction. (Some >>>> author popularized that model for AI but it was proposed by academic >>>> researchers before he did so. Karl Popper used the concept as part of his >>>> model of scientific discovery in the 1930s, but his principles, which were >>>> based on logical positivism, have become more dubious because logical >>>> certainty has become a more dubious principle of knowledge. And, oh, by the >>>> way, Popper did not believe that AI was possible.) So, continuing with the >>>> march of the use of "prediction" in AI, AI people could see that our >>>> expectations were like "predictions" and so it did seem that the human >>>> mind did indeed use a method of prediction. Of course the principle that a >>>> prediction could be compared against an actuality in order to evaluate the >>>> accuracy of a theory only works in narrow AI, and as narrow AI failed to >>>> produce simple AGI that part of the cherished notion of "prediction" has >>>> been gradually eroded. >>>> >>>> This group uses the term prediction to simply refer to something that >>>> is "known" and as such it is a concept which is pretty shallow since >>>> its verification as a mental product is thereby based on the experience >>>> that when we know something we act as if we were confident that it would >>>> happen. The problem with such concepts like "knowing" or "prediction" is >>>> that they -do not- confirm the efficacy of theories that an AGI program >>>> might produce, except in those circumstances which would be considered >>>> narrow AI by this group. >>>> >>>> Let me repeat that. >>>> The problem with such concepts like "knowing" or "prediction" is that >>>> they -DO NOT- confirm the effaciacy of theories that an AGI program might >>>> produce, except in those circumstances which would be considered narrow >>>> AI by this group. >>>> >>>> So sure, when someone points out that the human mind uses "expectation" >>>> and expectation is a little like "prediction" I do agree. But here the >>>> word prediction is just being used to describe "knowing something." There >>>> is no principle of confirmation or disconfirmation of the use of >>>> "prediction" that can be used to produce AGI, except for special cases. >>>> After years and years of the repetition of the word in these types of >>>> discussions there is still no AGI so that should give you a hint about how >>>> good an idea it was. >>>> >>>> If the use of prediction as a confirming method can only be used in a >>>> limited set of circumstances then its power in these discussions has been >>>> so diminished that it should not be used as if it were a magical concept. >>>> Without some efficacy the word should not be used as a special technical >>>> term. The word should be used in the way it is usually used. >>>> >>>> As I implied, Popper originally used the word the concept in a logical >>>> model of scientific theory. If a theory could be used to predict a >>>> confirming or disconfirming observable event then the theory could be >>>> disconfirmed by the failure of the event to occur. (If the event occurred >>>> it still might be caused by a coincidence.) >>>> >>>> It is coming back to me. (Or else my creative memory is kicking in.) >>>> The author who popularized the theory of confirmation through prediction >>>> had a model of probability and confirmation by prediction. That model is >>>> inherently contradictory. >>>> >>>> It amazes me that you guys don't get this. >>>> >>>> Jim Bromer >>>> *AGI* | Archives <https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/303/=now> >>>> <https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/rss/303/19999924-5cfde295> | >>>> Modify <https://www.listbox.com/member/?&;> Your Subscription >>>> <http://www.listbox.com> >>>> *AGI* | Archives <https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/303/=now> >>>> <https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/rss/303/5037279-6ef01b0b> | >>>> Modify <https://www.listbox.com/member/?&;> Your Subscription >>>> <http://www.listbox.com> >>>> >>> >>> *AGI* | Archives <https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/303/=now> >>> <https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/rss/303/10561250-164650b2> | >>> Modify <https://www.listbox.com/member/?&;> Your Subscription >>> <http://www.listbox.com> >>> >> >> > *AGI* | Archives <https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/303/=now> > <https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/rss/303/10443978-6f4c28ac> | > Modify<https://www.listbox.com/member/?&;>Your Subscription > <http://www.listbox.com> > -- Full employment can be had with the stoke of a pen. 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