Steve, High speed trading is something that people are not good at but narrow AI can be. It has to be narrow to keep it efficient. Your idea of optimal action in the absence of prediction is a pretty wild abstraction, and it would be difficult to implement. Just using correlation for example would tell you a lot about the relations of what was obvious and previously identifiable but little about the relations of causation and (ironically) co-occurrence. Correlation can identify perfect co-occurrence but it cannot be relied on -in itself- to identify imperfect or conditional co-occurrence. So for something like correlation to actually work to reliably identify conditional co-occurrences it has to have some way to identify or speculate on interactions that may be hidden. (I think Abram was telling me that hidden Markov processes were capable of doing this but here the guiding form of a Markov process is a conditional premise of the efficacy of the method.)
In order then to generalize this example of effectively using correlation just to identify interactive co-occurrence I feel the system would have to be capable of a dealing with a great many possible complications just to identify the few interactive co-occurrences that might have impact on a subsystem that is being observed. First, how do you simultaneously watch multiple subsystems? This is the easy part because our ideas about simple observations are inherently absurd. A simple system can easily be a complicated system. This relativistic view is the first clue then to discovering new ideas about simultaneously watching multiple complex systems. Many of the systems that can be observed easily are complex systems. So the real problem is how do we discriminate or recognize subtle relations that are hidden in the seeming simplicity of an observed event. For example if a cognitive system was deriving insight from a camera, the video of an observation event would contain all the complexity that could be inferred from what the camera could capture. So while a cognitive system might make jump to some real time conclusions, reanalysis of the recording of the event might provide more insight from a more sophisticated cognitive basis. Although this sounds like nothing new, it is still new just because no one has made much progress in identifying how representations of complexity work. Jim Bromer On Tue, Jun 19, 2012 at 5:08 PM, Steve Richfield <[email protected]>wrote: > Just a comment to inject into this discussion: > > Prediction is great when it is possible, but that is rare in our world of > imperfect information. > > Modern economics has brought us the concept of optimal action in the face > if imperfect information. This leans on concepts like volatility, where > tiny (and hence unpredictable) contributions can have huge effects. > > I think the emphasis should NOT be prediction, but rather on the > computation of optimal action in the ABSENCE of prediction. Of course that > is a more complex concept, so it has so far evaded deep discussion here. > > Note that this is the stock and trade of high speed trading software, so > people ARE already making this work in the real world. > > Any thoughts? > > Steve Richfield > ================== > > On Tue, Jun 19, 2012 at 1:50 PM, Jim Bromer <[email protected]> wrote: > >> Logan Streondj <[email protected]> wrote: >> Infering is a form of carrying knowledge from one place and applying it >> in a different place or time. >> >> >> This is the real question but it does not provide us with an answer. All >> the narrow forms of AI do offer solutions to certain kinds of problems, but >> is there a general way to work from uncertainty (about most every basis to >> make the determination) toward greater certainty that would allow us to say >> that a particular kind of knowledge that worked in another situation could >> work in this situation? If you base inference on similarities then the >> problem is how do you use automation (in other words a program) to detect >> similarities without some absolute method that some of the aspects of the >> two similar events are of a kind? >> >> Jim Bromer >> >> >> >> >> On Tue, Jun 19, 2012 at 3:42 PM, Jim Bromer <[email protected]> wrote: >> >>> Logan, >>> I also cannot predict the kinds of replies that I will get. >>> Of course, prediction is something that human beings can do. I >>> mentioned that in my previous message. However, I do not see this group as >>> swirling around the question of what kinds of things human beings can do >>> but around the question of what can we do to make our computer programs act >>> smarter. In that sense, intelligence is not a product of prediction, >>> prediction is a product of intelligence. >>> If anyone has proof that AGI is a product of prediction then he has >>> solved the problems that are constantly being discussed in this group. >>> >>> I think there was another author who popularized probability and >>> prediction in the 1970s. >>> >>> Your definition of inference is interesting and it is a more >>> sophisticated way of understanding the problem then the usual refrain of >>> the false promise of probability and prediction. >>> Jim Bromer >>> >>> >>> >>> On Tue, Jun 19, 2012 at 3:33 PM, Logan Streondj <[email protected]>wrote: >>> >>>> I agree with Jim that there is too much focus on "prediction". >>>> >>>> Though here the obsession might be related to how Ray Kurzweil, a man >>>> famous for his accurate predictions, chooses to define intelligence as the >>>> ability to predict. >>>> >>>> If prediction was a normal thing, then Ray wouldn't have gotten famous >>>> for it. >>>> Amongst us ordinary humans, at least around here in Canada, and on the >>>> internet, people rarely if ever mention the word "prediction". And very few >>>> if anyone claims to make accurate predictions. >>>> >>>> Kurzweil mentions prediction as necessary for things like hunting or >>>> gathering food. >>>> For instance projecting the vector of an animal as is runs away, >>>> or infering that if fruit was gathered in an area at a time of year, >>>> it may be available at same place next year at similar time. >>>> >>>> However projecting, infering, and predicting are 3 different words, >>>> with different meanings. >>>> >>>> Projecting is a form of planning ahead. >>>> Infering is a form of carrying knowledge from one place and applying >>>> it in a different place or time. >>>> Predicting is a form of prophecy or foretelling based on special >>>> knowledge. >>>> >>>> Most people infer and project, but very few predict. >>>> >>>> For instance in New Age cultures, many humans have had their careers >>>> broken by making false predictions. Also no one (but Ray) claims to make >>>> predictions based on intelligence, but usually based on things like >>>> intuition, and telepathic communications. >>>> >>>> Maybe I'm committing the fallacy of making a distinction without a >>>> difference. Perhaps all those words mean the same thing. >>>> >>>> Though I'd like to state that there are other ways of getting food, >>>> that don't relate to predictive ability. >>>> For instance how does an animal get food, they find a signature of the >>>> food-item, for instance a smell, sound or shape, and then move towards it, >>>> until their jaws are clenching it. >>>> I guess you could say they "predicted" the food was there, based on the >>>> signature. >>>> As it certainly is possible that following a signature, will lead to a >>>> non-food item, >>>> for instance if the signature is lost, or is being produced by >>>> something else, i.e. carnivorous flower. >>>> >>>> >>>> >>>> It is also possible that everything can be classified as prediction, >>>> for instance when saying the alphabet, we predict what the next letter >>>> is, before saying it. >>>> This would mean that every hello world program uses prediction, as it >>>> loads the hello world string, before printing it to screen. >>>> *shrugs* >>>> >>>> it depends, do we want prediction to lose all meaning, by applying it >>>> just about anything. >>>> Or do we want to be specific with what we are saying, and only use >>>> words like "prediction" in the way that non AGI mailing list people use >>>> it, as a shorter-term version of prophesy, based on special knowledge. >>>> >>>> For instance even though I consider myself intelligence, I can't >>>> predict the content of any reply or if there even will be replies, though >>>> I can infer that there may be replies, as this is a mailing list, where >>>> people often reply. >>>> >>>> >>>> >>>> >>>> >>>> On Tue, Jun 19, 2012 at 1:48 PM, Piaget Modeler < >>>> [email protected]> wrote: >>>> >>>>> Jim, >>>>> >>>>> Is this your actual belief or is this disinformation? >>>>> >>>>> ------------------------------ >>>>> Date: Tue, 19 Jun 2012 10:40:22 -0400 >>>>> Subject: [agi] Prediction Did Not Work (except in narrow ai.) >>>>> From: [email protected] >>>>> To: [email protected] >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> The original idea behind the use of "prediction" in AI was that the >>>>> prediction could be compared against the actuality and that comparison >>>>> could be used to test the theory that produced the prediction. (Some >>>>> author popularized that model for AI but it was proposed by academic >>>>> researchers before he did so. Karl Popper used the concept as part of his >>>>> model of scientific discovery in the 1930s, but his principles, which were >>>>> based on logical positivism, have become more dubious because logical >>>>> certainty has become a more dubious principle of knowledge. And, oh, by >>>>> the >>>>> way, Popper did not believe that AI was possible.) So, continuing with >>>>> the >>>>> march of the use of "prediction" in AI, AI people could see that our >>>>> expectations were like "predictions" and so it did seem that the human >>>>> mind did indeed use a method of prediction. Of course the principle that >>>>> a >>>>> prediction could be compared against an actuality in order to evaluate the >>>>> accuracy of a theory only works in narrow AI, and as narrow AI failed to >>>>> produce simple AGI that part of the cherished notion of "prediction" has >>>>> been gradually eroded. >>>>> >>>>> This group uses the term prediction to simply refer to something that >>>>> is "known" and as such it is a concept which is pretty shallow since >>>>> its verification as a mental product is thereby based on the experience >>>>> that when we know something we act as if we were confident that it would >>>>> happen. The problem with such concepts like "knowing" or "prediction" is >>>>> that they -do not- confirm the efficacy of theories that an AGI program >>>>> might produce, except in those circumstances which would be considered >>>>> narrow AI by this group. >>>>> >>>>> Let me repeat that. >>>>> The problem with such concepts like "knowing" or "prediction" is that >>>>> they -DO NOT- confirm the effaciacy of theories that an AGI program might >>>>> produce, except in those circumstances which would be considered narrow >>>>> AI by this group. >>>>> >>>>> So sure, when someone points out that the human mind uses >>>>> "expectation" and expectation is a little like "prediction" I do agree. >>>>> But here the word prediction is just being used to describe "knowing >>>>> something." There is no principle of confirmation or disconfirmation of >>>>> the use of "prediction" that can be used to produce AGI, except for >>>>> special >>>>> cases. After years and years of the repetition of the word in these types >>>>> of discussions there is still no AGI so that should give you a hint about >>>>> how good an idea it was. >>>>> >>>>> If the use of prediction as a confirming method can only be used in a >>>>> limited set of circumstances then its power in these discussions has been >>>>> so diminished that it should not be used as if it were a magical concept. >>>>> Without some efficacy the word should not be used as a special technical >>>>> term. The word should be used in the way it is usually used. >>>>> >>>>> As I implied, Popper originally used the word the concept in a logical >>>>> model of scientific theory. If a theory could be used to predict a >>>>> confirming or disconfirming observable event then the theory could be >>>>> disconfirmed by the failure of the event to occur. (If the event occurred >>>>> it still might be caused by a coincidence.) >>>>> >>>>> It is coming back to me. (Or else my creative memory is kicking in.) >>>>> The author who popularized the theory of confirmation through prediction >>>>> had a model of probability and confirmation by prediction. That model is >>>>> inherently contradictory. >>>>> >>>>> It amazes me that you guys don't get this. >>>>> >>>>> Jim Bromer >>>>> *AGI* | Archives <https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/303/=now> >>>>> <https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/rss/303/19999924-5cfde295> | >>>>> Modify <https://www.listbox.com/member/?&;> Your Subscription >>>>> <http://www.listbox.com> >>>>> *AGI* | Archives <https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/303/=now> >>>>> <https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/rss/303/5037279-6ef01b0b> | >>>>> Modify <https://www.listbox.com/member/?&;> Your Subscription >>>>> <http://www.listbox.com> >>>>> >>>> >>>> *AGI* | Archives <https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/303/=now> >>>> <https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/rss/303/10561250-164650b2> | >>>> Modify <https://www.listbox.com/member/?&;> Your Subscription >>>> <http://www.listbox.com> >>>> >>> >>> >> *AGI* | Archives <https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/303/=now> >> <https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/rss/303/10443978-6f4c28ac> | >> Modify <https://www.listbox.com/member/?&;> Your Subscription >> <http://www.listbox.com> >> > > > > -- > Full employment can be had with the stoke of a pen. Simply institute a six > hour workday. That will easily create enough new jobs to bring back full > employment. > > > *AGI* | Archives <https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/303/=now> > <https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/rss/303/10561250-164650b2> | > Modify<https://www.listbox.com/member/?&;>Your Subscription > <http://www.listbox.com> > ------------------------------------------- AGI Archives: https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/303/=now RSS Feed: https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/rss/303/21088071-c97d2393 Modify Your Subscription: https://www.listbox.com/member/?member_id=21088071&id_secret=21088071-2484a968 Powered by Listbox: http://www.listbox.com
