Sergio:  We know that states B, C, or D can not exist unless state A has 
existed before. So we say that A  *precedes*  B, C, and D. We also know that X, 
Y, or Z can exist only if B has existed. And this is the precise point where  
*causal sets*  come in.

This kind of causal reasoning is extremely commonplace, and probably central to 
science.

It involves a linear approach to causality – an idea of the world as so many 
“dominoes” or chains (of cause and effect).

Its origins lie first in language, logic and maths (and behind them the text) – 
which are all linear/propositional in form.

Its origins lie secondly in rational technology and the design of machines to 
date – which are largely inspired by linear, 
Rube-Goldberg-but-more-sophisticated-form thinking.

But most of the world is self-evidently not a set of linear chains.

Take the human body – with its zillions of parts inter-effecting each other 
from all possible angles and positions. How would you apply your logical A 
precedes B to the body? Where would you start? Where do cause and effect begin 
in the body? Explain how someone picks their nose, accounting for the position 
of every particle and tissue in their body.

Note that of course the body is a mechanistic affair – matter in motion – 
matter moving matter. But the problem in establishing cause and effect is that 
there are so many factors, and it’s extremely hard and perhaps often impossible 
to say what comes before – causes - what.

Try it.

The world is not a neat set of causal chains but a vast world wide web of 
causes, where order and precedence of causality can be extremely obscure.

Take the internet. How to establish how a new fad reaches critical mass? ...how 
anything on the net succeeds or fails?

You’re talking about artificial world reasoning – neat artificial chains of 
cause and effect. The real world consists of extremely intricate, “dirty” webs.

P.S. As soon as you move from the artificial lines of logicomathematical texts 
to pictures – photographic, painted, cinematic – the simplemindedness of linear 
reasoning becomes apparent.  Take a battle scene:

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/a/ac/Battle_Scene,_after_Hans_Holbein_the_Younger.jpg
 

Please apply causality and causal sets in a systematic way to one of those.




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AGI
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