On Thu, Aug 30, 2012 at 4:53 PM, Anastasios Tsiolakidis <[email protected]> wrote: > 1) which breakthrough/milestone you think is/are needed on your way to AGI
As I explained in my design, there are 3 things that must happen before machines will be able to do all the work that we now have to pay people to do because machines aren't smart enough. 1. A 1000 to 10,000-fold decrease in the cost of computation, memory, and bandwidth. (I estimated 1 million in 2009). 2. Solutions to hard problems in language, vision, art, robotics, and modeling human behavior. 3. A global system of public surveillance to collect human knowledge. The estimated cost is $100 trillion to $1 quadrillion, mostly for knowledge collection, once hardware prices drop. We need about 10^26 OPS and 10^25 bits of memory to run the equivalent of 10^10 human brain sized neural networks, barring the discovery of more efficient solutions to step 2. (So far none are known). Currently that much hardware would cost about $1 quintillion, but should drop to $1 quadrillion in 15 years at the current rate of Moore's law. That is near the break even point for investors (world GDP divided by market interest rates). The software (the focus of most AGI efforts) is the least expensive part. A human genome with 3 x 10^9 base pairs is equivalent in complexity to 10M lines of code, which would cost about $1 billion. To model variability in the human population, we need the following additional information per person: 1. Your parents: 33 bits each. 2. Which parent you inherited each chromosome from: 23 bits. 3. Mutations. Mitosis has a copy error rate of 10^-9 per base pair, or 3 mutations per haploid. It takes 32 bits to describe the location of a SMP and 2 bits to describe the substitution. Crossover, copies, and deletions require a similar number of bits. It takes about 40 generations for a man to produce enough sperm over a lifetime, or 4000 bit errors inherited from the father. The number of eggs is much smaller, so I won't count these. Thus, it takes about 10 times as many bits to encode the genome of every person on earth as to encode 1 person. Thus, the software should cost $10 billion, still a trivial share. No doubt it will be higher as we first try to optimize for insufficient hardware, and then later for insufficient human knowledge as this becomes the bottleneck. A rough estimate of this cost: 1. 10^9 bits of long term memory per human (word, picture, and sound recall tests by Landauer). 2. 99% of human knowledge is shared (U.S. Labor Dept: replacing an employee costs 1% of lifetime earnings). 3. Speech, writing and typing transmit 2 to 5 bits per second. 4. Global per capita income is US $5 per hour. 5. Human population is 7 billion. Thus, capturing the 10^17 bits that make each person unique would cost about $100 trillion. This cost will go up as the economy grows and time becomes more valuable. I think this will be the most severe bottleneck. If we automate 90% of human labor, then the 10% that remains might be 10 times as valuable, keeping the cost at $100 trillion for the remainder. This is why we need technology such as advanced, high resolution surveillance that recognizes faces and voices. Alternatives such as brain scanning would currently have to cost $10K to be competitive, but might still be a long term solution. > 2) which module(s)/subsystem you are certain will make it all the way > to AGI 1.0, so which current theory/tech is essential to your vision I think most of the theoretical work has already been done. Once we have sufficient computing power, hard problems like vision and robotics won't be so hard anymore. The hardware is a physics and engineering problem. Clock speeds have already stalled, and transistor sizes are now only tens of atoms across. Power and heat dissipation are major problems. The world's most powerful computers are able to run a human brain sized neural network (10 petaflops, 1 petabyte), but need 10 MW of power, compared to 20 watts for the brain. -- Matt Mahoney, [email protected] ------------------------------------------- AGI Archives: https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/303/=now RSS Feed: https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/rss/303/21088071-c97d2393 Modify Your Subscription: https://www.listbox.com/member/?member_id=21088071&id_secret=21088071-2484a968 Powered by Listbox: http://www.listbox.com
