Alan>My hypothesis is that we are currently on the climbing side of a hump effect in AI. That is, until we really understand the computations involved in AI, we will be spending more and more on ever larger and more baroque neural simulations. Once we are over that hump, and have an AI, we can start optimizing until the machine requirements for a very capable system are down in the $50-100k range, assuming no changes in hardware technology from today.
You don't say. :) Let me throw another hypothesis - thinking machines are coming next year, or in worst scenarios - in a few years. At least as smart as a few-year old child in some domains, but in other domains - vastly above human level, ultra fast and making humans inappropriate in those domains. Which ones? Watch for my products in the upcoming years. $50-100k range - in case of hyperinflation, or if it comes with a humanoid robot kit, or if it's packaged in a luxury (self-driving) car or in a house, or if just the creators monopolize the market and deliberately put a high price, due to the profit one who own a thinking machine could generate, or/and due to high taxes, set in order to prevent economical shock. As of hardware prices - in my current intuitive estimates the nowadays PCs are more than enough to grow thinking machines, at least like humans can become intelligent either if born blind and deaf, or if just blond or deaf, or if they have all those senses. Adding more power would make it better and faster, but my estimate is that a true AGI/SIGI is supposed to run on a very modest computer, even without specific ASICs. There's one problem that has been hampering the creation of thinking machines so far, though - human intelligence... ....* Todor "Tosh" Arnaudov ....* * .... Twenkid Research:* http://research.twenkid.com * SIGI - self improving GI ------------------------------------------- AGI Archives: https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/303/=now RSS Feed: https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/rss/303/21088071-c97d2393 Modify Your Subscription: https://www.listbox.com/member/?member_id=21088071&id_secret=21088071-2484a968 Powered by Listbox: http://www.listbox.com
