Hell, for all any of us knows, Moore's Law might hit the end of the line next year. I think even the most optimistic futurologists would agree that would throw an awful lot of things out the window.
On Sat, Dec 8, 2012 at 3:26 AM, Matt Mahoney <[email protected]>wrote: > I considered writing about the more distant future, such as molecular > level computing, Dyson spheres, and the physical limits of computation. But > any guesses about the far distant future will probably be wrong. We really > have no idea what will happen after the end of humanity. > > > On Fri, Dec 7, 2012 at 10:17 PM, Russell Wallace < > [email protected]> wrote: > >> On Sat, Dec 8, 2012 at 3:09 AM, Tim Tyler <[email protected]> wrote: >> >>> The details, maybe. However, there's the idea of >>> http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technological_determinism >>> ...which seems to explain an awful lot. So, it doesn't really seem >>> to be correct to say that the future is "inherently unpredictable". >>> >> >> Even if we believe in technological determinism, it only asserts that the >> future is approximately _deterministic_; it does not in any way suggest >> that it is _predictable_. Per Turing et al. we know that there is in the >> general case no faster way to predict the outcome of even a deterministic >> complex system than to run it and see what happens. >> *AGI* | Archives <https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/303/=now> >> <https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/rss/303/3701026-786a0853> | >> Modify <https://www.listbox.com/member/?&;> Your Subscription >> <http://www.listbox.com> >> > > > > -- > -- Matt Mahoney, [email protected] > > *AGI* | Archives <https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/303/=now> > <https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/rss/303/1658954-f53d1a3f> | > Modify<https://www.listbox.com/member/?&;>Your Subscription > <http://www.listbox.com> > ------------------------------------------- AGI Archives: https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/303/=now RSS Feed: https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/rss/303/21088071-f452e424 Modify Your Subscription: https://www.listbox.com/member/?member_id=21088071&id_secret=21088071-58d57657 Powered by Listbox: http://www.listbox.com
