On Fri, Dec 28, 2012 at 5:30 AM, Logan Streondj <[email protected]> wrote:
> > > > On Thu, Dec 27, 2012 at 6:54 PM, Jim Bromer <[email protected]> wrote: > >> I believe I can write a simple AGI program in a year. >> > > Ha, ya sure you can, > k go ahead. > > I'm sure you'll be more humble after you do ;-), > write an AGI program for a year that is. > > I haven't had the time to follow this thread closely, I've been sick with bronchitis and not doing too great, but I am going to respond to this statement right here. If you've been paying any attention to accelerating change theories from Kurzweil and others, or if you've just been following software technology advancement over time, you may have noticed that it is becoming easier to write software each year. I'm gonna go out on a limb and say that it is becoming *exponentially easier* to write software. The number of open-source libraries is increasing at a rapid rate, and there are an increasing number of possible ways to combine them. More combinatorial choices for components *does* mean that a programmer is faced with a more complex workspace, but I strongly believe that this only negatively impacts the difficulty at a logarithmic rate (due to the ability to find what we are looking for using Google, and recommendation systems are improving this factor yet even more), while the positive benefits of such a large workspace are increasing *roughly linearly* with the number of open-source components to choose from. At some point, these two lines on the graph will diverge at a very fast rate, leaving us with exponentially easier software development, leading to exponentially more software. This doesn't guarantee that we will have *better* software on any given metric, but we will certainly have more of it. So as time moves forward, it becomes more likely that a single person could write an AGI system in one year. I don't think it can be done today, but perhaps in the next decade. This is how a Singularity will likely happen, and this rapid growth may end up spawning an AGI system via easy software development, rather than the AGI software spawning the rapid growth. AGI will increase the rate of growth extremely faster, but I think that by the time we end up making it, we will already be moving at a very fast rate. ------------------------------------------- AGI Archives: https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/303/=now RSS Feed: https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/rss/303/21088071-f452e424 Modify Your Subscription: https://www.listbox.com/member/?member_id=21088071&id_secret=21088071-58d57657 Powered by Listbox: http://www.listbox.com
