On 06/03/2013 22:03, Matt Mahoney wrote:
1. Power requirements. A human brain sized neural network running at 10^16 OPS on a supercomputer typically uses 10 MW of power at a cost of $1000 per hour for electricity. This is 4 x 10^5 times more than the human brain, which is unlikely to be achieved by shrinking chip feature sizes, which are currently about 100 silicon atoms. Running 10^10 such computers to automate the economy, if it were possible, would produce 10^17 W of waste heat. I calculated that this would raise the Earth's average temperature from 15 C to 51 C.(123 F).
Power requirements for computation have dropped with minaturization. Today's tablets don't usually risk melting your thighs, which equivalent computational power would have done a few years back. There are limits (Landauer's Principle) to what you can do without reversibility - but these are still some way off. So: you really have to take decreasing power requirements into account when extrapolating. -- __________ |im |yler http://timtyler.org/ [email protected] Remove lock to reply. ------------------------------------------- AGI Archives: https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/303/=now RSS Feed: https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/rss/303/21088071-f452e424 Modify Your Subscription: https://www.listbox.com/member/?member_id=21088071&id_secret=21088071-58d57657 Powered by Listbox: http://www.listbox.com
