Precise estimation of the development of a new technology is obviously difficult --- especially as it depends on real-world constraints like funding and company politics, as well as on technologica/scientific uncertainties...
Some things come about much faster than projected, some much slower... Naturally the human mind gravitates to round numbers like 5 or 10 years in making predictions, in the absence of solid knowledge... Sometimes such predictions can also be self-fulfilling prophecies: if enough people with enough resources consistently believe X is achievable within 5 years, they may be able to make it so... -- Ben G On Fri, Feb 21, 2014 at 4:28 AM, Mike Archbold <[email protected]> wrote: > It seems like the super-ambitious projects are always "it will work in > 10 years." The very ambitious projects are 5 years (like this one). > Just an observation. > > On 2/20/14, Aaron Hosford <[email protected]> wrote: >> It's the "killer app" for chatbot technology... and the first step on the >> path leading to consumer access to AGI. No, Siri isn't even remotely >> intelligent, but her great great grandchildren may be. >> >> >> On Wed, Feb 19, 2014 at 11:22 PM, Ben Goertzel <[email protected]> wrote: >> >>> >>> http://www.technologyreview.com/news/524401/yahoo-launches-10-million-research-effort-to-invent-a-smarter-siri/#comments >>> >>> >>> >>> -- >>> Ben Goertzel, PhD >>> http://goertzel.org >>> >>> "In an insane world, the sane man must appear to be insane". -- Capt. >>> James T. Kirk >>> >>> >>> ------------------------------------------- >>> AGI >>> Archives: https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/303/=now >>> RSS Feed: >>> https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/rss/303/23050605-2da819ff >>> Modify Your Subscription: >>> https://www.listbox.com/member/?&; >>> Powered by Listbox: http://www.listbox.com >>> >> >> >> >> ------------------------------------------- >> AGI >> Archives: https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/303/=now >> RSS Feed: https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/rss/303/11943661-d9279dae >> Modify Your Subscription: >> https://www.listbox.com/member/?&; >> Powered by Listbox: http://www.listbox.com >> > > > ------------------------------------------- > AGI > Archives: https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/303/=now > RSS Feed: https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/rss/303/212726-deec6279 > Modify Your Subscription: https://www.listbox.com/member/?&; > Powered by Listbox: http://www.listbox.com -- Ben Goertzel, PhD http://goertzel.org "In an insane world, the sane man must appear to be insane". -- Capt. James T. Kirk ------------------------------------------- AGI Archives: https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/303/=now RSS Feed: https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/rss/303/21088071-f452e424 Modify Your Subscription: https://www.listbox.com/member/?member_id=21088071&id_secret=21088071-58d57657 Powered by Listbox: http://www.listbox.com
