On 2/21/14, Ben Goertzel <[email protected]> wrote: > Precise estimation of the development of a new technology is obviously > difficult --- especially as it depends on real-world constraints like > funding and company politics, as well as on technologica/scientific > uncertainties... > > Some things come about much faster than projected, some much slower... > > Naturally the human mind gravitates to round numbers like 5 or 10 > years in making predictions, in the absence of solid knowledge... > > Sometimes such predictions can also be self-fulfilling prophecies: if > enough people with enough resources consistently believe X is > achievable within 5 years, they may be able to make it so... > > -- Ben G
Here's another one! The Australians.... give it 10 years.... http://www.pulseitmagazine.com.au/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=1783:big-data-and-building-a-bionic-brain&catid=16:australian-ehealth&Itemid=327 > > On Fri, Feb 21, 2014 at 4:28 AM, Mike Archbold <[email protected]> wrote: >> It seems like the super-ambitious projects are always "it will work in >> 10 years." The very ambitious projects are 5 years (like this one). >> Just an observation. >> >> On 2/20/14, Aaron Hosford <[email protected]> wrote: >>> It's the "killer app" for chatbot technology... and the first step on >>> the >>> path leading to consumer access to AGI. No, Siri isn't even remotely >>> intelligent, but her great great grandchildren may be. >>> >>> >>> On Wed, Feb 19, 2014 at 11:22 PM, Ben Goertzel <[email protected]> wrote: >>> >>>> >>>> http://www.technologyreview.com/news/524401/yahoo-launches-10-million-research-effort-to-invent-a-smarter-siri/#comments >>>> >>>> >>>> >>>> -- >>>> Ben Goertzel, PhD >>>> http://goertzel.org >>>> >>>> "In an insane world, the sane man must appear to be insane". -- Capt. >>>> James T. Kirk >>>> >>>> >>>> ------------------------------------------- >>>> AGI >>>> Archives: https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/303/=now >>>> RSS Feed: >>>> https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/rss/303/23050605-2da819ff >>>> Modify Your Subscription: >>>> https://www.listbox.com/member/?&; >>>> Powered by Listbox: http://www.listbox.com >>>> >>> >>> >>> >>> ------------------------------------------- >>> AGI >>> Archives: https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/303/=now >>> RSS Feed: >>> https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/rss/303/11943661-d9279dae >>> Modify Your Subscription: >>> https://www.listbox.com/member/?&; >>> Powered by Listbox: http://www.listbox.com >>> >> >> >> ------------------------------------------- >> AGI >> Archives: https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/303/=now >> RSS Feed: https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/rss/303/212726-deec6279 >> Modify Your Subscription: https://www.listbox.com/member/?&; >> Powered by Listbox: http://www.listbox.com > > > > -- > Ben Goertzel, PhD > http://goertzel.org > > "In an insane world, the sane man must appear to be insane". -- Capt. > James T. Kirk > > > ------------------------------------------- > AGI > Archives: https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/303/=now > RSS Feed: https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/rss/303/11943661-d9279dae > Modify Your Subscription: > https://www.listbox.com/member/?&; > Powered by Listbox: http://www.listbox.com > ------------------------------------------- AGI Archives: https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/303/=now RSS Feed: https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/rss/303/21088071-f452e424 Modify Your Subscription: https://www.listbox.com/member/?member_id=21088071&id_secret=21088071-58d57657 Powered by Listbox: http://www.listbox.com
