Ben, > If the OpenCog design is basically right, then still we have maybe 200-300 human-years
Burdened at $200K/yr (a really small value) that works out to $40M-$60M, which is TOO BIG to fund without an established cash flow, unless you can demonstrate magic like Facebook has done. Anything over $10M MUST be done as a public offering that requires SEC scrutiny that is there to BLOCK companies with big dreams but nothing to show. > of effort to get to a human-level AGI, according to my best attempts at fully realistic estimates... The best way of doing BELIEVABLE estimates seems to be to estimate project 3 different ways. There are countless ways of estimating - wild guesses, estimated number of routines times the average time write/debug/test each routine, comparing with other comparable projects, time to adapt related software, get quotes from offshore software vendors, etc., etc., just pick three and "tweak" their parameters to make all three methods come up with the same answer. I have seen that where the "answer" is wrong, that at least one of the methods would require a tweak that is completely unreasonable/unbelievable. > To do this in a startup company context requires one to make a viable business using software created incrementally along the way, and use this interim software to drive revenue or fundraising to get the whole thing done. This is very difficult because one is trying to do two things at once (build an AGI and build a business). Some alternatives would seem to be: > -- work within a big company like Google, Baidu, Facebook, IBM, etc., which have massive resources > -- get a zillionaire to donate lots of $$ (or become a zillionaire, i.e. at least a tens-of-millions-aire, and self-fund) > -- get massive gov't funding like Markram did for the EU Human Brain project > -- build a Linux-level OSS AGI project ... > I gravitate toward the fourth option because it's more DIY (though certainly it's not easy either, and we have a number of steps to carry out to get there w/ OpenCog). As you can probably tell from my postings, I am opting for Option 2(B) morphing into Option 1, where I have created the big company in which to work. > And I note that this option does not rule out gov't or wealthy donor participation --- nor big company participation (e.g. Google, IBM, etc. have contributed substantially to Linux) > OTOH, if you believe you have an AGI design that can be brought to the human level or near with much more modest effort, then you may have a different menu of options available... Mostly I have a different target - a "weak" AI approach that has no thought, soul etc., but nonetheless is capable of solving many of the world's most difficult problems. I have a plan and a patent and hope to soon have MUCH more. > If your goal is to make a lot of $$ then whether OSS is the right approach is arguable. YES - THIS explains our argument. Until SOMEONE here makes a BIG bundle of money, AGI isn't going to go anywhere. I would rather NOT be that person, but no one else seems to be steeping into this role. > It's not a non-workable approach to profit, but neither the simplest approach. But if your goal is to make AGI there's a lot to be said for it, and it certainly doesn't rule out making $$ along the way... I have worked on enough tight-budget software projects to see that AGI is NOT going to be developed on a tight budget. People here can't even afford test beds on which to test their approaches. IMHO anyone thinking they can develop AGI without MAJOR funding is just plain nuts. In large part, I have worked on the approach I have worked on BECAUSE it can be developed on a tight budget (ala DrEliza). Steve ========================== -- Ben G *AGI* | Archives <https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/303/=now> > <https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/rss/303/10443978-6f4c28ac> | > Modify > <https://www.listbox.com/member/?&;> > Your Subscription <http://www.listbox.com> > -- Full employment can be had with the stoke of a pen. Simply institute a six hour workday. That will easily create enough new jobs to bring back full employment. ------------------------------------------- AGI Archives: https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/303/=now RSS Feed: https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/rss/303/21088071-f452e424 Modify Your Subscription: https://www.listbox.com/member/?member_id=21088071&id_secret=21088071-58d57657 Powered by Listbox: http://www.listbox.com
