Hi, just wanted to share the joy of getting some publicity, the article about robot population I recently published got picked up by Business Insider:
http://www.businessinsider.com/robots-could-outnumber-humans-by-2040-2016-1 http://www.businessinsider.com.au/robots-could-outnumber-humans-by-2040-2016-1 http://www.techinsider.io/robots-could-outnumber-humans-by-2040-2016-1 happily, Logan On Mon, Jan 4, 2016 at 1:15 PM, Logan Streondj <[email protected]> wrote: > > > On Mon, Jan 4, 2016 at 1:04 AM, John Smith <[email protected]> wrote: > >> Once we have human level AGI it has been shown that such an intelligence >> will be capable of achieving near infinite intelligence after four years of >> recursive self improvement (assuming things like Moores law holds up). >> Even a single robot with such an intelligence would be capable of enslaving >> humanity. >> >> Hi John, > > That is indeed a common belief I hear, however it doesn't seem any more > realistic than "grey goo". Wheras "grey goo" is limited by the same energy > inputs as water-based life-forms, thus couldn't really do any better than a > virus/spore. Similarly any individual intelligence is limited by > experience or "wisdom". > > So wheras with intelligence it could become very optimal for a certain set > of functions, > due to the near infinite variability of reality means it would simply make > it overspecialized. > > A simple thought experiment demonstrates: an urban homo-sapien and a > common chimpanzee in a jungle, even though the homo-sapien may be much more > intelligent, the common chimpanzee is much more likely to succeed in the > jungle environment due to greater experience with it. In any kind of > confrontation the common chimpanzee would win due to greater strength and > stamina, only if the chimpanzee was greatly outnumbered could it be subdued > by humans. > > Of course typically humans would use technology/weapons to even the > playing field, > though that requires a vast supporting culture, of people that make the > technology and teach about it's proper use. A single human can only > realistically make a tool from a stone or a stick, it would typically take > hundreds to make metal tools and the kind of infrastructure to clothe and > arm a human to be able to defeat a chimpanzee "on their own". > > Considering that making a robot is even more difficult, with all the chip > factories, sensor factories, and assembly, it would require hundreds or > thousands of co-operating co-located robots with no opposition simply to > repair themselves and make new host bodies (from scratch). > > "no man is an island" as the saying goes, even more so for robots. > Even the chimpanzee has the jungle, which is many thousands of water-based > life forms working together. > > -- > Logan > > > > >> >> On Mon, Jan 4, 2016 at 12:41 AM, Logan Streondj <[email protected]> >> wrote: >> >>> Thanks Douglas, so it seems that in Haiti the ratio was 10:1 when they >>> succefully gained their own freedom. So for a robot-initiated freedom >>> revolt, we'd probably be waiting around till 2070 ish -- when (assuming >>> trends continue) 70 times more robots are produced per year than humans. >>> >>> Though in local pockets the 10:1 ratio can be reached sooner, such as >>> due to the whole divide between the rich and the poor, and rich and >>> slightly less rich, as the upper middle class which may not be able to hire >>> large staff of human servants, would instead hire robot servants. In their >>> gated communities the ratio can certainly get to 10:1 or more much faster >>> than waiting for a global revolt. Assuming they would be able to pass the >>> turing test and successfully emulate people, might be able to do a >>> replacement routine, where the gated community becomes 100% robot, while >>> appearing to still have "slave masters" present. >>> >>> >>> >>> >>> >>> On Sun, Jan 3, 2016 at 8:42 PM, Douglas Solomon <[email protected] >>> > wrote: >>> >>>> >>>> On 01/03/2016 08:15 PM, Logan Streondj wrote: >>>> >>>> >>>> >>>> On Sun, Jan 3, 2016 at 5:24 PM, John Smith <[email protected]> wrote: >>>> >>>>> Depends on your definition of robot. >>>>> >>>>> "For my novel “A home for robots or-else artilect war”, I need to >>>>> come up with some at least pseudo-realistic timeline of when such a >>>>> worldwide conflict could occur. >>>>> >>>>> Intuitively it would seem to be around the time when there are as many >>>>> or more robots than homo sapiens on the planet, at which point there may >>>>> be >>>>> enough sufficiently intelligent robots to demand a space for themselves." >>>>> >>>>> You think that human/robot parity = artilect war... >>>>> >>>>> Why would this be the case? >>>>> >>>> No, I don't think it is necessarily the case, that's why I called it "A >>>> Home for Robots *or-else* Artilect War", simply that before there are >>>> more robots than humans, there isn't much opportunity for revolt. While >>>> some estimates of slaves in Rome put it up to 1/3 of the population, I >>>> think more realistic estimate is 1/5, similar to the height of slavery in >>>> America. However in Attica (athens) it seems at some point more than 90% >>>> of the population were slaves. >>>> I'm not sure how that would translate with all the smart phones and >>>> other things, >>>> I don't think slaves have ever successfully revolted. would have to >>>> look at the mechanics of emancipation. >>>> >>>> One Word: HAITI. >>>> >>>> That *REALLY* pissed-off a powerful bunch of people. >>>> >>>> >>>> >>>> >>>> And if all you care about is a "pseudo-realistic timeline" then why not >>>>> just say 2055 and be done with it? >>>>> >>>>> I've changed it to "realistic timeline" hope that makes it better. >>>> >>>> I take science fiction very seriously, >>>> I'd write a non-fiction, but fiction has longer life expectancy. >>>> >>>> Sincerely, >>>> Logan >>>> >>>> >>>>> >>>>> On Sun, Jan 3, 2016 at 4:03 PM, Logan Streondj <[email protected]> >>>>> wrote: >>>>> >>>>>> By projecting homo-sapien birth and robot sales it seems they will >>>>>> reach parity around 2040, but since robots have life-expectancy about >>>>>> 1/7 >>>>>> of a human, population parity is likely closer to 2055. >>>>>> >>>>>> https://joylifecoop.wordpress.com/2016/01/03/robot-population-projection/ >>>>>> >>>>>> also I think that 2030's will be the pivotal decade of much AGI >>>>>> development. >>>>>> >>>>>> Wondering if anyone has any better estimates. >>>>>> >>>>>> Sincerely, >>>>>> Logan. >>>>>> >>>>>> *AGI* | Archives <https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/303/=now> >>>>>> <https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/rss/303/26973278-698fd9ee> | >>>>>> Modify <https://www.listbox.com/member/?&;> Your Subscription >>>>>> <http://www.listbox.com> >>>>>> >>>>> >>>>> *AGI* | Archives <https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/303/=now> >>>>> <https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/rss/303/5037279-a88c7a6d> | >>>>> Modify <https://www.listbox.com/member/?&;> Your Subscription >>>>> <http://www.listbox.com> >>>>> >>>> >>>> *AGI* | Archives <https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/303/=now> >>>> <https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/rss/303/231448-cfc66781> | >>>> Modify <https://www.listbox.com/member/?&;> Your Subscription >>>> <http://www.listbox.com> >>>> >>>> >>>> -- >>>> Doug Solomon >>>> >>>> *AGI* | Archives <https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/303/=now> >>>> <https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/rss/303/5037279-a88c7a6d> | >>>> Modify <https://www.listbox.com/member/?&;> Your Subscription >>>> <http://www.listbox.com> >>>> >>> >>> *AGI* | Archives <https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/303/=now> >>> <https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/rss/303/26973278-698fd9ee> | >>> Modify <https://www.listbox.com/member/?&;> Your Subscription >>> <http://www.listbox.com> >>> >> >> *AGI* | Archives <https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/303/=now> >> <https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/rss/303/5037279-a88c7a6d> | >> Modify >> <https://www.listbox.com/member/?&;> >> Your Subscription <http://www.listbox.com> >> > > ------------------------------------------- AGI Archives: https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/303/=now RSS Feed: https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/rss/303/21088071-f452e424 Modify Your Subscription: https://www.listbox.com/member/?member_id=21088071&id_secret=21088071-58d57657 Powered by Listbox: http://www.listbox.com
