Congratulations! Interesting projection. Jim Bromer
On Mon, Jan 4, 2016 at 5:56 PM, Logan Streondj <[email protected]> wrote: > > Hi, > > just wanted to share the joy of getting some publicity, > the article about robot population I recently published got picked up by > Business Insider: > > http://www.businessinsider.com/robots-could-outnumber-humans-by-2040-2016-1 > http://www.businessinsider.com.au/robots-could-outnumber-humans-by-2040-2016-1 > http://www.techinsider.io/robots-could-outnumber-humans-by-2040-2016-1 > > happily, > Logan > > On Mon, Jan 4, 2016 at 1:15 PM, Logan Streondj <[email protected]> wrote: >> >> >> >> On Mon, Jan 4, 2016 at 1:04 AM, John Smith <[email protected]> wrote: >>> >>> Once we have human level AGI it has been shown that such an intelligence >>> will be capable of achieving near infinite intelligence after four years of >>> recursive self improvement (assuming things like Moores law holds up). >>> Even a single robot with such an intelligence would be capable of enslaving >>> humanity. >>> >> Hi John, >> >> That is indeed a common belief I hear, however it doesn't seem any more >> realistic than "grey goo". Wheras "grey goo" is limited by the same energy >> inputs as water-based life-forms, thus couldn't really do any better than a >> virus/spore. Similarly any individual intelligence is limited by experience >> or "wisdom". >> >> So wheras with intelligence it could become very optimal for a certain set >> of functions, >> due to the near infinite variability of reality means it would simply make >> it overspecialized. >> >> A simple thought experiment demonstrates: an urban homo-sapien and a common >> chimpanzee in a jungle, even though the homo-sapien may be much more >> intelligent, the common chimpanzee is much more likely to succeed in the >> jungle environment due to greater experience with it. In any kind of >> confrontation the common chimpanzee would win due to greater strength and >> stamina, only if the chimpanzee was greatly outnumbered could it be subdued >> by humans. >> >> Of course typically humans would use technology/weapons to even the playing >> field, >> though that requires a vast supporting culture, of people that make the >> technology and teach about it's proper use. A single human can only >> realistically make a tool from a stone or a stick, it would typically take >> hundreds to make metal tools and the kind of infrastructure to clothe and >> arm a human to be able to defeat a chimpanzee "on their own". >> >> Considering that making a robot is even more difficult, with all the chip >> factories, sensor factories, and assembly, it would require hundreds or >> thousands of co-operating co-located robots with no opposition simply to >> repair themselves and make new host bodies (from scratch). >> >> "no man is an island" as the saying goes, even more so for robots. >> Even the chimpanzee has the jungle, which is many thousands of water-based >> life forms working together. >> >> -- >> Logan >> >> >> >>> >>> >>> On Mon, Jan 4, 2016 at 12:41 AM, Logan Streondj <[email protected]> wrote: >>>> >>>> Thanks Douglas, so it seems that in Haiti the ratio was 10:1 when they >>>> succefully gained their own freedom. So for a robot-initiated freedom >>>> revolt, we'd probably be waiting around till 2070 ish -- when (assuming >>>> trends continue) 70 times more robots are produced per year than humans. >>>> >>>> Though in local pockets the 10:1 ratio can be reached sooner, such as due >>>> to the whole divide between the rich and the poor, and rich and slightly >>>> less rich, as the upper middle class which may not be able to hire large >>>> staff of human servants, would instead hire robot servants. In their >>>> gated communities the ratio can certainly get to 10:1 or more much faster >>>> than waiting for a global revolt. Assuming they would be able to pass the >>>> turing test and successfully emulate people, might be able to do a >>>> replacement routine, where the gated community becomes 100% robot, while >>>> appearing to still have "slave masters" present. >>>> >>>> >>>> >>>> >>>> >>>> On Sun, Jan 3, 2016 at 8:42 PM, Douglas Solomon <[email protected]> >>>> wrote: >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> On 01/03/2016 08:15 PM, Logan Streondj wrote: >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> On Sun, Jan 3, 2016 at 5:24 PM, John Smith <[email protected]> wrote: >>>>>> >>>>>> Depends on your definition of robot. >>>>>> >>>>>> "For my novel “A home for robots or-else artilect war”, I need to come >>>>>> up with some at least pseudo-realistic timeline of when such a worldwide >>>>>> conflict could occur. >>>>>> >>>>>> Intuitively it would seem to be around the time when there are as many >>>>>> or more robots than homo sapiens on the planet, at which point there may >>>>>> be enough sufficiently intelligent robots to demand a space for >>>>>> themselves." >>>>>> >>>>>> You think that human/robot parity = artilect war... >>>>>> >>>>>> Why would this be the case? >>>>> >>>>> No, I don't think it is necessarily the case, that's why I called it "A >>>>> Home for Robots or-else Artilect War", simply that before there are more >>>>> robots than humans, there isn't much opportunity for revolt. While some >>>>> estimates of slaves in Rome put it up to 1/3 of the population, I think >>>>> more realistic estimate is 1/5, similar to the height of slavery in >>>>> America. However in Attica (athens) it seems at some point more than >>>>> 90% of the population were slaves. >>>>> I'm not sure how that would translate with all the smart phones and other >>>>> things, >>>>> I don't think slaves have ever successfully revolted. would have to look >>>>> at the mechanics of emancipation. >>>>> >>>>> One Word: HAITI. >>>>> >>>>> That *REALLY* pissed-off a powerful bunch of people. >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> >>>>>> And if all you care about is a "pseudo-realistic timeline" then why not >>>>>> just say 2055 and be done with it? >>>>>> >>>>> I've changed it to "realistic timeline" hope that makes it better. >>>>> >>>>> I take science fiction very seriously, >>>>> I'd write a non-fiction, but fiction has longer life expectancy. >>>>> >>>>> Sincerely, >>>>> Logan >>>>> >>>>>> >>>>>> >>>>>> On Sun, Jan 3, 2016 at 4:03 PM, Logan Streondj <[email protected]> >>>>>> wrote: >>>>>>> >>>>>>> By projecting homo-sapien birth and robot sales it seems they will >>>>>>> reach parity around 2040, but since robots have life-expectancy about >>>>>>> 1/7 of a human, population parity is likely closer to 2055. >>>>>>> https://joylifecoop.wordpress.com/2016/01/03/robot-population-projection/ >>>>>>> >>>>>>> also I think that 2030's will be the pivotal decade of much AGI >>>>>>> development. >>>>>>> >>>>>>> Wondering if anyone has any better estimates. >>>>>>> >>>>>>> Sincerely, >>>>>>> Logan. >>>>> -- >>>>> Doug Solomon ------------------------------------------- AGI Archives: https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/303/=now RSS Feed: https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/rss/303/21088071-f452e424 Modify Your Subscription: https://www.listbox.com/member/?member_id=21088071&id_secret=21088071-58d57657 Powered by Listbox: http://www.listbox.com
