To get a start on the $5m. you want, how about winning the DARPA Grand Challenge, which will bring you one m. $. <http://www.darpa.mil/GrandChallenge>. All you have to do is program a car to drive 300 miles autonomously (not tele-robotically) from LA to Vegas. You can even use GPS.
FWP ***** MACHINE PSYCHOLOGY: <http://iio.ens.uabc.mx/~mbarbosa/atoma> ***** On Thu, 28 Nov 2002, Alan Grimes wrote: > om > > In this posting I will try to walk you through a fairly complex and, in > some places tenuous, chain of reasoning related to my own personal > attempt to develop an AI. My motovation in writing this post is to seek > out people who might be interested in this venture. And, ofcourse, this > will serve as a sanity check for myself. > > I know that people skim longer postings however I do have some very > important things to say, skim to the second 'om' in the posting for the > skinny... > > === > > For the last month I have been trying to put togeather a box for > research. The USPS lost the ram and its going to be a while before I > will be able to afford it again =(. In the mean time I am trying to > sketch out my research agenda. > > To start with I need an OS and develment environment. It can't be linux > because I am building the machine with my old 850MB HD (I spent all my > money on the Mobo). That's not a real reason, ofcourse, because I could > put any HD I want in it, if I had the money. The real issue is that > Linux is not a real-time operating system. Its simply the wrong solution > for this job. I'm not going to use windows, for obvious reasons. > > My immediate plan is to put BeOS on the machine cuz I have the disk on > hand. Unfortunately Microsoft killed Be Inc, so I will probably switch > to QNX or some other real-time platform at some point. Other options > include using DOS to boot the machine then run the AI as a > self-supporting system providing its own OS functionality. > > > These platform issues seem to be minor but I will demonstrate their > importance presently. > > I have chosen a cybernetic approach to AI because it makes the most > sense to me. I don't think I could work any other approach. A cybernetic > approach is one that is based on a cybernetic loop between actor and > object. Where the AI is designed in the context of a problem to be solved. > > To develop an AI based on this approach one first sets about to > construct a problem domain for the AI to work on. For general AI one > requires an open problem space such as a box of Legos. Today's computers > already come with a broad selection of software that would be suitable > for this purpose. The problem then becomes how to make it so that the AI > can see and use these applications just as the human user does? One > would like to create a virtual desktop which is mirrored to the physical > console and then have the AI take its input from what it displays. On > this desktop the AI can run games and other instructional software as > well as communicate with the human operator. > > The development of such a system is still very chalenging as nobody > writes software to run in the configuration I just described. This > problem is not insurmountable, it will only require a great deal of > money. Here is where I make my make my first logical step. I have > concluded that to get the money and resources I need to develop the AI > training software I will need to launch a commercial venture either > under an existing company or organization or as a new business. > > So I start to sketch out a business plan. My idea would be to produce AI > development tools. These would include software adaptors to let the AI > use Mozilla or sumpfin as well as two lines of robotic systems. The > first line would feature laboratory rigs that include white-boxes for > controlling stimulii. In that system, the AI would be given Fischer > Price toys to play with. It would have a camera and a dexterous > high-feedback robotic arm. Basically a pre-fab version of the type of > laboratory that has been in use for years... > > The higher line would be a mobile platform with a big honkin on-board > computer and a dexterous manipulator. > > So how do I market this? Could I match expenses? The market for the lab > equipment would be fairly narrow... Maybe a few dozen universities would > buy it. Probably not enough to achieve an economy of scale and make it > affordable to a broader market of hobyists and entheuseasts. In other > words the hardware angle of the venture would not do much to advance the > cause of AI develment. > > The software, however could be produced for practically nothing. So what > kind of software would be able to make it big enough to justify a > price-drop into hobyist teritory? The most advanced AI available to > consumers today are in games such as Creatures and "Black and White". > A game engine architected to support general AI actors would be close to > ideal. > > The Sims Online is only the latest example. That kind of game would be > great for teaching an AI to be good citizen. I, however, have a great > bias against virtual communities beacuse it makes me nervous that it > might one day gain a status above the real world, creating a situation > inimical to someone, such as myself, who has an interest in real-world > things. I used to have a "reality engine" project on my website but I > withdrew it after reading Egan's Diaspora. So my first choice would be > to go with a mobile platform or implement some in-house application for > the job. No matter how attractive that approach is, it is still most > problematic. > > om > > Software is too hard to develop. The curent state of software is that > there are high barriers to entering the circle of developers. > Furthermore once one has made a comittment to devel software you are > faced with C++ which I have been told requires 7 years of daily > experience to truly master or with the nightmare of getting a better > language to work with an operating system which is literally built to > support C and C++. Switching to a better OS makes things worse because > once you get out of the mainstream you can't find support and you find > yourself having to write/port more of your applications. While the OS > you choose may be much much better than linux (which isn't hard at all) > such as BeOS your costs will go up because you have to do alot more from > scratch. > > [damn, I'm having trouble writing streight today; not enough sleap cuz > I've been downloading 5.5GB of leenooks over 56k...] > > YES, it is technically possible to nuckle under and work linux. When one > thinks of an application such as the internet one looks at the work and > what it takes to do the work. In all cases you want to maximize the > ratio of work to overhead. > > Lets think of software as a pyramid. The simplest softwarez are at the > bottom, and AI is the little point at the very top... > > ^ < AI. > /_\ < applications. > /___\ < operating systems. > /_____\ < languages > /_______\ < raw computation. > > The ease of developing AI is a function of how well the lower levels > support the next level. This isn't strictly the case but given my state > of tiredness, it makes perfect sense. ;) > > To give you a better feel for what exactly is going on here let me try, > in my over fatigued state, to relate the core of what is going on here > through an anictdote that happened to me a week or so ago. > > I have a long-time pen-pal, David G. Shreeves ( > [EMAIL PROTECTED] ). He has been a Slackerware (linux) user > for many years and reccomends it highly. On his advice, six months ago, > I had a friend of mine (who has DSL) burn me the discs. He, most kindly, > provided me with all three disks. My HD had reciently been slaughtered > by an asshole after 6 years of uninterupted operation and I was in need > of a new OS. When I tried to install the OS, it didn't work, it simply > couldn't handle the optimal configuration of my HD. I asked around and > they told me that it was a bug in the kernel and the work-around was to > change a setting in the BIOS to a lower setting and later to recompile > the kernel with the correct driver. > > I use DOS as a benchmark for OS quality. Since this problem _NEVER_ > happens in DOS, linux is clearly inferior. > > So I was talking with Shreeves about it a few days ago and he knew about > the bug too and suggested that its just a hacker's OS and that these > inconveniences are minor. > > He, and many like him overlook a critical fact. That being that the > _USER_, and in this case AI researcher, was forced to take time and > mental resources AWAY from his work on AI to handle these linux "quirks". > > While it is theoreticaly possible for someone to be such a strong > programmer that he can put up with linux and still have some time left > over on the weekends to solve the AI problem, I hope the people > receiving this message will see that to be a real problem. Humans are > finite creatures. You can't keep piling stuff on them and expect them to > be just as fast. > > The burdeons of using linux have gotten to the point that its > development has been thouroughly arrested by all the cruft that has > built up around it. > > Our basic goal here is to make computing much easier so that AI > researchers can jump right in and start working the real problems of AI > rather than spending all their time and mental resources getting their > flaming hard drives working. By making AI research dramaticly easier to > accomplish we can dramaticly improve the chances that someone out there > will "get it right", and that's a Good Thing (tm). > > The easier computing systems that I am talking about already exist. One > of the most shining examples of these is the Squeak environment. ( > www.squeak.org ). > > The question now is, what is the killer app that can bring Squeak into > the mainstream and encourage the open source community to give it the > functionality that it needs to really succede without having to make a > massive initial investment in that same functionality? > > I think the answer is this: > > http://www.business2.com/articles/web/0,1653,45665,FF.html > > A game is not like traditional open source. Very few people will work on > the real problems in the linux system, the core of GNU software that it > is based on, because it is difficult and because, as humans, they don't > have sufficient emotional motovation to work on such projects. > > A MMORPG based on Squeak can solve that problem. While the details of > the virtual world I propose are beyond the scope of what I want to say > here. I feel that I have an excelant chance at being extremely sucessful > in this venture. I will just have to set asside my fears and go whole > hog on this because these on-line games have such an enormous potential > for driving development of the cultural and technical foundations of AI > development. > > The economic value of virtual communities is only now beginning to be > realized. The on-line RPGs we see today are merely experaments to find > the right set of concepts that will make it big. I can project from the > recient trends in the field and I am very confidient in my ability to > design a virtual world with great potential. > > I know how to do it. > > I do face a significant challenge in getting it off the ground. While it > has a clear mission, its qualities as a piece of software are not > readily apparent. Investors have been mistaking complexity for > sophistication for quite a while now and I don't see that changing any > time soon. They will look at the Squeak package and won't see its true > value because it looks too simple to them. ;) > > The Virtual world I propose, the first generation at least, is quite > obnoxious in that it will be a simple 2-D system. It is 2-D for very > good reasons but investors will look at it and balk. =( > > For an AI focused institution they will look at it and say "What value > does this bring us? It has nothing to do with AI!" While, on the > surface, they would be right, they will fail to see that promoting the > virtual world I here propose, is what I call an "indispensible luxury". > Its something that you don't really really need, but is a real pain in > the butt to do without. Let me try to sumarize the payoff here. Squeak > today is a wonderful system but it is immature and not yet sufficient > for major projects. Today's operating systems have a massive ammount of > inertia behind them and that won't change unless major effort is put > into displacing them. > > Through the virtual world squeak can become a major factor in the future > of computing. In five to seven years, my virtual world system can be in > a position to begin to displace these entrenched monopolies. The payoff > comes on the day when system administrators are fired because the > computers are simple enough for even the boss to configure. ;) The > payoff comes when all the hours spent maintaining a windows or linux > installation and doing day-to-day chores can be put into pushing the > frontiers of the art. While all this liberated effort won't be going > into AI directly, it will be put into software that AI researchers will > use in their daily work and thereby form the foundation on which AI will > be built. > > It is apparent to me that AI is, and has been for some time, strictly a > software problem. The time it will take to solve this software problem > will depend on how much overhead and complexity the AI researcher has to > deal wtith _BEFORE_ beginning his work. > > WE CAN MOVE THE SINGULARITY FORWARD BY YEARS JUST BY FIXING THE PROBLEMS > WITH TODAY'S SOFTWARE. > > om > > In conclusion, I am about to go against my reservations and fears and > plunge head-long into a virtual world project because I beleive, by this > convoluted logic, that it is vital to advancing the development of AI. > > Bottom line: I need $5,000,000 to start, and another $10,000,000 to go > on-line. > > > "The day may be 10-20 years from now when we will have a HAL...we are working on it >at Ames...it is not science fiction." > -Daniel Goldin, Chief NASA Administrator, 2001 AD on Discovery TV > > To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to: > [EMAIL PROTECTED] > > > > Your use of Yahoo! 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