Ben, > As Moshe pointed out to me, Marcus Hutter and his students tried to > replicate Baum's work, with mixed results: > > go to > > http://www.idsia.ch/~marcus/ > > click on "Artificial Intelligence" and scroll down to > > Market-Based Reinforcement Learning in Partially Observable Worlds (with I. > Kwee & J. Schmidhuber) > Proceedings of the 11th International Conference on Artificial Neural > Networks (ICANN-2001) 865-873
Thanks. > > Despite the wonderful work of Eric Baum and others, > > developing really robust reinforcement learning is a > > really hard challenge. Which is why my estimate for > > the arrival of SI is 2100 rather than 2010 or 2020. > > I hope I'm wrong, because I want to meet a SI. > > Bill, I think that *thinking about* the AGI problem as a problem of > "developing really robust reinforcement learning" is CORRECT but > UNPRODUCTIVE. I think that if you think about the problem as one of > creating an integrated mind-system, and build the integrated mind-system, > you will find that the robust reinforcement learning comes along due to > coordinated emergent behaviors of various components. In my book I say that consciousness is part of the way the brain implements reinforcement learning, and I think something like that is necessary for a really robust solution. That's why I think it will take 100 years. I try to give short answers, which sometimes gives the mistaken impression that I think things are simple. > So ultimately, I don't think that ultra-clever pure-reinforcement-learning > schemes like Baum's are the road to AGI, although they may play a role. > > It wouldn't be the first time in the history of science that a problem > looked close-to-impossible from one perspective, but became manageable via a > perspective-shift. I hope that when I say something will take 100 years, that indicates that I think it is not straightforward and will require a number of major conceptual leaps. Bill ------- To unsubscribe, change your address, or temporarily deactivate your subscription, please go to http://v2.listbox.com/member/?[EMAIL PROTECTED]
