Mark, But a few years shift can make a huge difference if the "hard takeoff" idea has any meat to it at all.
If group A gets to human-level AGI 3 years before group B, then in that 3 years group A's AGI may already achieve a level of intelligence allowing group A to acquire a great deal of power of various sorts. -- Ben On 12/19/05, Mark Horvath <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > Dear Ben, > > I hope you are right, but anyway, the order of development does not make a > huge difference. I think many organizations will develop it more or less > (with few years shifting) simultaneously as the level of general technology > and knowledge grows. > > Márk > > > On 12/19/05, Ben Goertzel <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > > > > Based on my somewhat but not completely thorough understanding of the > > US military/intel community (I live near DC, have done some consulting > > for the community, and know a lot of folks involved with it), I find > > it very unlikely that they are seriously pursuing AGI R&D. However, > > *watching* people involved with AGI is a lot simpler to carry out, and > > I have little doubt this is occurring. > > > > -- Ben > > > > On 12/19/05, Mark Horvath <[EMAIL PROTECTED] > wrote: > > > Hi, > > > > > > I think this is natural. I would do the same, if my job would be to lead > the > > > creation of AGI in any group you have mentioned; try to collect the best > > > brains, and monitor (and store) all important development happening. And > > > they have more money for the job than any university, or other research > > > facilities, groups. And also, I dont think they are publishing all their > > > results, so they have a some advantage in creating the first AGI (but > > > luckily there are a lot of civil competitors). > > > > > > I can only hope that at least the first AGI will be friendly (for all > > > humanity, and not a company or state), since in general they will be > selfish > > > concerning their owner (except if regulated centrally, like by Asimov). > > > > > > Bests, > > > Márk > > > > > > > > > > > > On 12/18/05, Shane Legg <[EMAIL PROTECTED] > wrote: > > > > > > > > My AGI ideas continue to brew away, as they have done for many years. > > > > I like to keep a fairly low profile for a few reasons, one being that > > > every year > > > > I realise how little I knew the previous year! I am however busy in > my > > > thesis > > > > area of theoretical models of universal super intelligence (AIXI etc.) > and > > > so > > > > publish and turn up in magazines etc. from time to time. I also write > a > > > blog > > > > that gets a fair amount of daily traffic. > > > > > > > > Recently, however, it seems that I've somehow come to the attention of > > > > certain groups. To start with I thought that the hits I was getting > from > > > various > > > > military and military related companies were just random and part of > the > > > > growing number of hits that my blog and website were getting. But > things > > > > have since become more systematic, with military related aerospace > > > > companies, various military bases and even a certain five sided > building > > > > doing automated scans of my research site, downloading my papers and > > > > also scanning my blog. > > > > > > > > Yeah I know, that sounds crazy. I mean, if these people wanted to > watch > > > > me, they wouldn't be scanning my stuff using a computer with a > Pentagon > > > > or other high profile DNS addresses right? I'm sure that if they > really > > > wanted > > > > to watch me they would be far more sneaky and I'd never know about it. > > > > I can only presume that for what ever reason, they don't mind me > knowing > > > > that I'm being watched. I've also found out through other channels > that I > > > > have attracted some interest. So they aren't being very secret about > it. > > > > > > > > Anyhow, I presume that the reason I'm attracting attention has > something > > > > to do with my research interests in models of super intelligence, AGI > and > > > > so on. I can't imagine that anything else about me could be of the > > > slightest > > > > interest to them at all. > > > > > > > > Which brings me to my question: Are we (people interested in AGI) > > > > being watched? > > > > > > > > I'd always just presumed that we weren't considered very interesting, > > > > at least, not yet. > > > > > > > > Shane > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > ________________________________ > > > To unsubscribe, change your address, or temporarily deactivate your > > > subscription, please go to > > > > http://v2.listbox.com/member/[EMAIL PROTECTED] > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > ________________________________ > > > To unsubscribe, change your address, or temporarily deactivate your > > > subscription, please go to > > > > http://v2.listbox.com/member/[EMAIL PROTECTED] > > > > > > > > > > ------- > > To unsubscribe, change your address, or temporarily deactivate your > subscription, > > please go to > http://v2.listbox.com/member/[EMAIL PROTECTED] > > > > > > ________________________________ > To unsubscribe, change your address, or temporarily deactivate your > subscription, please go to > http://v2.listbox.com/member/[EMAIL PROTECTED] > > ------- To unsubscribe, change your address, or temporarily deactivate your subscription, please go to http://v2.listbox.com/member/[EMAIL PROTECTED]
