(1) Intuition is useless. Hard empirical data combined with hard math are
the only route to truth.
Intuition, my friend, is needed to tell you what data to gather and
what theorems to prove ;-)
Public speculation about anything going beyond
hard data is worse than useless.
Not necessarily -- some folks have used it very successfully for
fundraising ;-) ... and these funds can then be used for the science
and math that you advocate!
(2) Most of philosophy is gibberish.
(3) Obsessing about the timing and effects of a possible Singularity falls
into categories (1) and (2). Worse than useless and a constant neagative
distraction. No one can possibly know what the real effects of an AGI would
be (beyond some very general parameters) nor can any one really know when or
if a Singularity will in fact occur. It's not science so forget it. Count
yourselves lucky if a Singularity occurs sometime within your remaining
lifetimes ( i.e within the next 0-40 years) and save any further speculation
for that sci-fi novel you always intended to write but never got around to.
Well, whether we will be LUCKY when/if the Singularity occurs -- as
you have just glibly asserted -- is one of the main topics of
speculation ;-)
But, I do agree that after a certain point of understanding is
reached, futurological speculation loses its value and time is better
spent in other ways. Most humans have not reached this point yet,
but perhaps most people on this list have.
-- Ben
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