>Intuition is useless.
Wikipedia
defines the "intuition" as
"understanding
without apparent effort, quick and ready insight seemingly independent of
previous experiences or empirical knowledge."
I would like to emphasize the "without apparent" and "seemingly". I believe the algorithms behind intuition are similar to those used during regular thinking. It just involves data we don't make active enough for conscious analyses (IMO due to our active memory capacity limitations and limited ability to effectively switch focus). So the analyses performed on the subconscious level might be limited (thus possibly less time-consuming) comparing to those performed on the conscious level, but it still might be (and often is) sufficient to provide right directions. The good thing about subconscious thinking is that it gets much less distracted by things like current sensory input, various short term states of the "active" mind etc so it can follow different paths comparing to where would it go on the conscious level. Considering the complexity of our world and our limitations, my impression is that even when trying to stick with scientific methods, we practically still cannot always afford to completely exclude intuition from our decision making. If we are perfect thinking machines with unlimited resources then I would agree we should stay away from intuition. But we are far from that.
Regards,Jiri
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Some things I've learned the hard-way about AGI so far:(1) Intuition is useless. Hard empirical data combined with hard math are the only route to truth. Public speculation about anything going beyond hard data is worse than useless.(2) Most of philosophy is gibberish.(3) Obsessing about the timing and effects of a possible Singularity falls into categories (1) and (2). Worse than useless and a constant neagative distraction. No one can possibly know what the real effects of an AGI would be (beyond some very general parameters) nor can any one really know when or if a Singularity will in fact occur. It's not science so forget it. Count yourselves lucky if a Singularity occurs sometime within your remaining lifetimes ( i.e within the next 0-40 years) and save any further speculation for that sci-fi novel you always intended to write but never got around to.---P.S I'm semi-retired from the lists but YOU GUYS HAVEN'T GOTTEN RID OF ME. I'm still 'out there' in the world some-where. I could be anywhere. I could have hidden servers in the North pole. I could be at Stanford. I could be in New Zealand. I'm just waiting to strike.... and unleash my own 'stewardship' of the Earth. Remember guys... Geddes is still out there...somewhere ;)
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