Well, although I am not an AI developer, I am a C++ application developer
and I know I or any reasonably skilled developer could write task-specific
applications that would be extremely coherent in the De Finetti sense
(applicable to making probabilistic judgements in horse-racing, casinos,
the stockmarket, whatever). These applications would make mincemeat of
humans in any test of coherence. Such applications already exist, come to
think of it.
So I think people should be optimistic about coherence in AGI, not
pessimistic.
-gts
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