Message Ben said "-- the possibility of dramatic, rapid, shocking success in robotics is LOWER than in cognition"
Ed said: That's why I tell people the value of manual labor will not be impacted as soon by the AGI revolution as the value of mind labor. Nah, you're both "mental." You'll soon "come to your senses" and "down to earth" :) My prediction is that within 10 years the idea of pure, non-robotic AGI will be dead. Remember: there is no functioning AGI at the moment - for all these "90% there" claims.. But you can say, with Darpa, that robotics is at last, however primitively and still not really generally, mobile and off the ground. And I think we'll continue to see further advances while pure AGI stays stuck. For one thing, as I've already posted - something I believe is hugely significant, and yet nobody here was paying attention (to the event rather than me) - there is now a true test of robotics general intelligence in the ICRA Robot Challenge (especially in the planetary contingency part). . There is no comparable test for pure AGI. Robotics is focussed, pure AGI isn't. And robotics excites people generally and pure AGI doesn't - as Minsky has pointed out, when journalists enter the lab, it's always robots rather than screens that capture their interest. Darpa apparently is already attracting a considerable amount of big companies and big money into robotics. P.S. The bottom/ dividing line here is : is general intelligence embodied/grounded? You guys are placing a bet based on pure hope rather than scientific reasoning, that it isn't. ----- This list is sponsored by AGIRI: http://www.agiri.org/email To unsubscribe or change your options, please go to: http://v2.listbox.com/member/?member_id=8660244&id_secret=63987351-138a56
