RE: [agi] What best evidence for fast AI?>> I am aware of multiple places in the Novamente approach where tough programming, hard engineering choices, and experimentation are needed. But I don't know where any miracles are required. If you know of any, please point them out to me.
:-) The quote is from an old joke Gantt chart where everything is done in low-level gritty detail until there is a leap from the last bit of planning to the successful conclusion. Tough programming, hard engineering choices, and experimentation are precisely what I mean by "a miracle happens here". But, as for specific places where I think that Novamente needs to fill in the gaps ASAP to have a credible plan, I've already mentioned several -- "scale-invariance of knowledge, ways of determining and exploiting encapsulation and modularity of knowledge without killing useful "leaky" abstractions, etc." and a serious review of the "memory" design. >> Read Hofstadter's CopyCat and think how it could map into Novamente. A >> little imagination is required. Of course, tuning it to get near optimal >> results might not be trivial. I am quite familiar with Hofstadter's CopyCat and even did a project based on it almost 20 years ago. I understand how it *could* map into Novamente but your "A little imagination is required" and "might not be trivial" make my point for me. Until you've done it (or, at least provided a reasonable demonstration proof), you don't know the gotchas that you're going to run into or the trade-offs you're going to have to make. >> If you don't think the Novamente approach is the fastest path to AGI, I >> would be interesting in hearing what you consider to be better. I think that the emphasis on Probabilistic Reasoning is a sidelight to the majority of intelligence (yet it is the major focus for Novamente). I think that knowledge-conflict-resolution systems and analogy systems that operate with small amounts of data but with very large sparse networks of knowledge are much closer to the path (than discovery in data-intensive tasks). >> I would also be interested in hearing what you consider to be the other >> nearest competitive approaches. Competitive is an interesting term. To be acknowledged as competitive one basically must have money, a team, and a not-bad idea. We all know about Novamente and a number of the academic projects. There is absolutely no way to tell about Peter Voss's project with the available information. My personal guess on the NSA, etc. is that they had better attempts at AGI in the past and are now brute-forcing many of their requirements. But I suspect that there are still enough breakthroughs that need to be done that it's going to be a dark horse or someone not currently known who is going to either succeed or be sucked into a current project to put that project far ahead (if indeed, that scenario isn't required several times over). ----- Original Message ----- From: Edward W. Porter To: [email protected] Sent: Monday, November 12, 2007 10:28 AM Subject: RE: [agi] What best evidence for fast AI? Mark, Since the quote you are responding to is from me, let me respond. Much of what you say is true. I am aware of multiple places in the Novamente approach where tough programming, hard engineering choices, and experimentation are needed. But I don't know where any miracles are required. If you know of any, please point them out to me. Perhaps it is because of my own thinking which I have done prior to hearing of Novamente, but I have not thought reasoning by analogy is conceptually hard for years. Read Hofstadter's CopyCat and think how it could map into Novamente. A little imagination is required. Of course, tuning it to get near optimal results might not be trivial. I would not suggest for one second that the Novamente approach is the only, or necessarily best approach (for all I know the NSA may already have something better up and running). I, like you, think I know of things that could improve it. But it is the best, most complete, overall approach of which I know, and since a lot has been written on it, it is an approach one can discuss without having to spend a hundred pages to let people know what you are talking about. In multiple posts I have used the phrase Novamente-like approach. I think Jeff Hawkin's approach actually is somewhat Novamente-like, and the two approach are actually likely to get more similar, at an abstract level, as they each become more complete systems and get more experience with the problem. In several posts I have said the fastest way to AGI would be for there to be serious funding of multiple different teams. Currently based on my knowledge, which is far from omnipotent, I think Novamente should be one of those teams. But I would not suggest any serious effort by deep funding to jump start AGI should place all its eggs in one basket. If you don't think the Novamente approach is the fastest path to AGI, I would be interesting in hearing what you consider to be better. I would also be interested in hearing what you consider to be the other nearest competitive approaches. Ed Porter (617) 494-1722 Fax (617) 494-1822 [EMAIL PROTECTED] -----Original Message----- From: Mark Waser [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] Sent: Monday, November 12, 2007 9:26 AM To: [email protected] Subject: Re: [agi] What best evidence for fast AI? > As I wrote to Robin Hanson earlier today, the fact you don't agree > with > what we view as the relatively high probability of success for our > approach does not reflect poorly on either your intelligence or your > knowledge of AI. If you haven't spent a lot of time thinking about a > Novamente-like approach there is no reason, no matter how bright you are > that you should be able to understand its promise. Maybe I shouldn't get into this, but . . . . I've read the detailed Novamente design. It meshed very well with a lot of my previous intuitions and in some areas went into a lot more detail (and went into a lot less detail in others). I firmly believe that an AGI could be built on top of Novamente's design. That being said, I don't believe that Novamente is particularly close to the fastest path to AGI for several reasons. First, Novamente is a discovery system (and a *really* good one). The other parts of it's design, however, are not fully fleshed out and there are huge "a miracle happens here" holes. This is not to denigrate Ben and his team in any way, shape, or form. They've done wonders with their resources and can't do everything. Second, over the past few years, I've become more and more convinced that discovery systems, while they do "learn", are not the type of learning that I think is necessary for AGI. Novamente can certainly tease out patterns from large quantities of data but it isn't fully designed (at this point) to do anything like reasoning by analogy, for example. Ben does have some plans for this but, my opinion is that, he is still in the realm of "a miracle happens here" on this subject. Third, and I've said this before, there are some fundamental engineering features (scale-invariance of knowledge, ways of determining and exploiting encapsulation and modularity of knowledge without killing useful "leaky" abstractions, etc.) that aren't implemented yet in Novamente that really need to be implemented much earlier rather than later. Also, I have a lot of questions about Novamente's "memory" design. In particular, I think that Novamente's foray into learning in a virtual world is either going to be incredibly useful or a rather large bust because it is precisely the type of learning that Novamente hasn't specialized in before this point. A number of people on this list seem to regard Ben as almost a deity or a prophet. Ben is intelligent, creative, has a solid background, and gets to work hard in the field so he looks a lot better than most everyone else. It also means that he has polished his ideas and eliminated the most obvious problems. This does not, however, mean that he has a provably correct path. Novamente may lead to AGI (with *a lot* more hard work). Personally, as I've said, I believe that it is *a path* but one which will be overtaken and passed by a shorter, easier path (just as I believe that brain emulation is a path that will be overtaken and passed by a shorter, easier path). When one simply looks at the difference between the brain emulation path and the Novamente path (much less other paths like Hawkins, etc), one has to realize that there is a *wide* range of potentially viable paths to AGI. What is particularly distressing is those individuals who insist on being Novamente fanboys without pointing to any specific features that are particularly important or unique. Ben and, for example, Richard argue in specific details. They pretty much understand where each other stands but disagree with some fundamental (but unprovable) assumptions on the other's part. Personally, it seems to me that Novamente could answer Richard's complaints with some tweaking and minor/moderate change of focus (since Novamente is actually more a framework than an absolutely rigid design in many ways) but that the two of them are currently more interested in being different that working together. But this has gotten rather long so I should sum up . . . . Novamente has great promise -- but part of the reason why it has such great promise is because so much of it *hasn't* been fully determined yet. The design is still open enough that it can be stretched to fit many things. The problem is that stretching it in some directions may/probably will make it less adept at other things (jack of all trades/master of none) and it may well be (and this is my primary complaint) that it is *so* general that, while it could serve as the basis of an AGI, it is far more complicated than necessary to do so (just as a bird's biology is not necessary for flight). Thus, those blindly insisting that Novamente is the be-all-and-end-all and that all other approaches should be abandoned are not doing any of us a service. I want to see Novamente go forward but we shouldn't put all of our eggs in one basket. ----- This list is sponsored by AGIRI: http://www.agiri.org/email To unsubscribe or change your options, please go to: http://v2.listbox.com/member/?&; ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ This list is sponsored by AGIRI: http://www.agiri.org/email To unsubscribe or change your options, please go to: http://v2.listbox.com/member/?&; ----- This list is sponsored by AGIRI: http://www.agiri.org/email To unsubscribe or change your options, please go to: http://v2.listbox.com/member/?member_id=8660244&id_secret=64163951-40743f
