Matt, The complexity of a simulated environment is tricky to estimate, if the environment contains complex self-organizing dynamics, random number generation, and complex human interactions ...
ben On Tue, Jan 13, 2009 at 1:29 PM, Matt Mahoney <matmaho...@yahoo.com> wrote: > My response to Ben's paper is to be cautious about drawing conclusions from > simulated environments. Human level AGI has an algorithmic complexity of 10^9 > bits (as estimated by Landauer). It is not possible to learn this much > information from an environment that is less complex. If a baby AI did > perform well in a simplified simulation of the world, it would not imply that > the same system would work in the real world. It would be like training a > language model on a simple, artificial language and then concluding that the > system could be scaled up to learn English. > > This is a lesson from my dissertation work in network intrusion anomaly > detection. This was a machine learning task in which the system was trained > on attack-free network traffic, and then identified anything out of the > ordinary as malicious. For development and testing, we used the 1999 > MIT-DARPA Lincoln Labs data set consisting of 5 weeks of synthetic network > traffic with hundreds of labeled attacks. The test set developers took great > care to make the data as realistic as possible. They collected statistics > from real networks, built an isolated network of 4 real computers running > different operating systems, and thousands of simulated computers that > generated HTTP requests to public websites and mailing lists, and generated > synthetic email using English word bigram frequencies, and other kinds of > traffic. > > In my work I discovered a simple algorithm that beat the best intrusion > detection systems available at the time. I parsed network packets into > individual 1-4 byte fields, recorded all the values that ever occurred at > least once in training, and flagged any new value in the test data as > suspicious, with a score inversely proportional to the size of the set of > values observed in training and proportional to the time since the previous > anomaly. > > Not surprisingly, the simple algorithm failed on real network traffic. There > were too many false alarms for it to be even remotely useful. The reason it > worked on the synthetic traffic was that it was algorithmically simple > compared to real traffic. For example, one of the most effective tests was > the TTL value, a counter that decrements with each IP routing hop, intended > to prevent routing loops. It turned out that most of the attacks were > simulated from a machine that was one hop further away than the machines > simulating normal traffic. > > A problem like that could have been fixed, but there were a dozen others that > I found, and probably many that I didn't find. It's not that the test set > developers weren't careful. They spent probably $1 million developing it > (several people over 2 years). It's that you can't simulate the high > complexity of thousands of computers and human users with anything less than > that. Simple problems have simple solutions, but that's not AGI. > > -- Matt Mahoney, matmaho...@yahoo.com > > > --- On Fri, 1/9/09, Ben Goertzel <b...@goertzel.org> wrote: > >> From: Ben Goertzel <b...@goertzel.org> >> Subject: [agi] What Must a World Be That a Humanlike Intelligence May >> Develop In It? >> To: agi@v2.listbox.com >> Date: Friday, January 9, 2009, 5:58 PM >> Hi all, >> >> I intend to submit the following paper to JAGI shortly, but >> I figured >> I'd run it past you folks on this list first, and >> incorporate any >> useful feedback into the draft I submit >> >> This is an attempt to articulate a virtual world >> infrastructure that >> will be adequate for the development of human-level AGI >> >> http://www.goertzel.org/papers/BlocksNBeadsWorld.pdf >> >> Most of the paper is taken up by conceptual and >> requirements issues, >> but at the end specific world-design proposals are made. >> >> This complements my earlier paper on AGI Preschool. It >> attempts to >> define what kind of underlying virtual world infrastructure >> an >> effective AGI preschool would minimally require. >> >> thx >> Ben G >> >> >> >> -- >> Ben Goertzel, PhD >> CEO, Novamente LLC and Biomind LLC >> Director of Research, SIAI >> b...@goertzel.org >> >> "I intend to live forever, or die trying." >> -- Groucho Marx > > > > ------------------------------------------- > agi > Archives: https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/303/=now > RSS Feed: https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/rss/303/ > Modify Your Subscription: https://www.listbox.com/member/?&; > Powered by Listbox: http://www.listbox.com > -- Ben Goertzel, PhD CEO, Novamente LLC and Biomind LLC Director of Research, SIAI b...@goertzel.org "This is no place to stop -- half way between ape and angel" -- Benjamin Disraeli ------------------------------------------- agi Archives: https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/303/=now RSS Feed: https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/rss/303/ Modify Your Subscription: https://www.listbox.com/member/?member_id=8660244&id_secret=126863270-d7b0b0 Powered by Listbox: http://www.listbox.com
