On Monday 14 January 2008, G. Allegri wrote:
> Hi everyone,
> this is my very first post on this mailing-list. I need to produce a
> map of soil salinity space variability. I have chosen to compare the
> estimation of OK, Regression Kriging and Indicator Kriging reliability
> on my data-set. I know that kriging variance depends only on the
> geometrical configuration of my samples and not on their actual
> values, but I thought the kriging variance could be used as a measure
> of the estimation quality. Instead reading Goovaerts (p. 184) I
> understand that "the kriging standard deviation cannot be used as a
> direct measure of estimation error".
> Someone says that simulations would give a better result, but I found
> an archive post from Pebesma saying that for many simulations the
> error variance tends to the kriging variance...
> So, what kriging statistics should I use to assess local estimation
> precision?
>
> Giovanni

Hi Giovanni,

You are correct - the kriging standard deviation is an internal measure of 
model uncertainty. You can easily shrink this standard deviation by changing 
the model - for example, lowering the sill of your variogram model. However, 
this does not mean you've improved model predictions!

One common approach is cross-validation, in which you leave each of your 
observations out in turn and use the remaining points to predict the value at 
that location. Then you can compare the predicted values to the actual ones. 
by cross-validating alternative models and comparing their predictive 
capability at the observations, you may be able to contrast model predictive 
performance.

This is not a complete method of model validation, but in the absence of 
additional data, it can be a useful approach.

Yours,

Ashton


-- 
Ashton Shortridge
Associate Professor                     [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Dept of Geography                       http://www.msu.edu/~ashton
235 Geography Building                  ph (517) 432-3561
Michigan State University               fx (517) 432-1671
+
+ To post a message to the list, send it to [email protected]
+ To unsubscribe, send email to majordomo@ jrc.it with no subject and 
"unsubscribe ai-geostats" in the message body. DO NOT SEND 
Subscribe/Unsubscribe requests to the list
+ As a general service to list users, please remember to post a summary of any 
useful responses to your questions.
+ Support to the forum can be found at http://www.ai-geostats.org/

Reply via email to